Home › NFL › New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
NFL
New England Patriots
New England Patriots
Patriots
24 - 19
Final
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK EARLY VALUE
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New England Patriots New England Patriots -7.0
"Patriots -7.0: OMEGA independent line says -11.0 (4-pt model edge) vs a 1-6 Miami team that's 0-3 at home — 64% confidence, 1.0u, with the weather-boosted under 41.5 at 0.5u."
EV / $100
+10.1
Win Prob
82%
Edge
+4.5%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New England Patriots None
50%
TOTAL under 41.5
57%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Weather Impact
Miami Gardens: Light rain | 80°F | Wind 15 mph
⚠️ HIGH WIND (15 mph): -12% passing (NFL), +15% under bias
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Light rain): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
11.0
Edge: +4.0
Total
42.0
Edge: +0.5
Win Prob
7.8%
ML
1182 / -1182
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at 7.0 — 9.2% of NFL games land on 7. Buying the half point is worth ~4.6% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy. OMEGA line (11.0) disagrees by 4.0 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 265 / -330 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 291 / -343 -
Value Line - 1100 / -10000 -
Sharp Action Best Line 7.0 (-115) - -
Market Consensus 6.5 (100) ↓ - -
Value Line 5.5 (-1667) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 43.0 (-115)
Market Consensus - - Over 41.5 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 105 / -105 322 / -322 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New England Patriots

H
Hunter Henry
(TE) out — Henry (foot) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game at Miami.
Out
G
Gabe Jacas
(LB) questionable — Jacas (knee) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against Miami, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Questionable
B
Behren Morton
(QB) out — Morton (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Patriots' emergency third quarterback against the Dolphins on Sunday.
Out
C
Christian Elliss
(LB) active — Elliss (chest) is active for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.
Active
C
Carlton Davis III
(CB) active — Davis (neck) is active against the Dolphins on Sunday.
Active
K
Karon Prunty
(CB) out — inactive
Out
T
TreVeyon Henderson
(RB) out — inactive
Out
A
A.J. Brown
(WR) out — inactive
Out
C
Channing Canada
(CB) out — inactive
Out
E
Elliott Davison
(S) out — inactive
Out
M
Marcus Bryant
(OT) Injured Reserve — Bryant (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Mike Kadlick of CLNSMedia.com reports.
Injured Reserve
R
Ryan Miller
(WR) active — The Patriots elevated Miller from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Active
L
Lan Larison
(RB) active — The Patriots signed Larison off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Active
B
Ben Brown
(C) active — Brown (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
Active
D
DaQuan Jones
(DT) active
Active
M
Morgan Moses
(OT) active
Active
J
Joshua Farmer
(DT) active
Active
M
Marcus Jones
(CB) active — Jones registered nine tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, and returned one punt for 19 yards in Thursday's loss to the Bears.
Active
K
Kyle Williams
(WR) active — Williams returned two kickoffs for 47 yards and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday.
Active
C
Corey Kiner
(RB) active — Kiner rushed four times for 13 yards in Thursday's Week 7 loss to Chicago. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
Active
E
Eli Raridon
(TE) active — Raridon caught three of four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's Week 7 loss to the Bears.
Active
E
Efton Chism III
(WR) active — Chism caught his sole target for 16 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday.
Active
D
DeMario Douglas
(WR) active — Douglas caught three of his four targets for 23 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday.
Active
A
Andy Borregales
(PK) active — Borregales made his only field-goal attempt and was successful on all three extra-point tries Thursday in a Week 7 loss to the Bears.
Active
R
Rhamondre Stevenson
(RB) active — Stevenson rushed six times for 22 yards and brought in all five targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday.
Active

Miami Dolphins

M
Malik Herring
(DE) questionable — Herring (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against New England.
Questionable
R
Reese Taylor
(CB) active — Taylor (quadriceps) is active against the Patriots on Sunday.
Active
J
Jared Wayne
(WR) out — Wayne (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game versus the Patriots.
Out
J
JuJu Brents
(CB) active — Brents (neck/concussion) is active for Sunday's game against New England.
Active
J
Jaylin Simpson
(S) out — inactive
Out
K
Kadyn Proctor
(OT) out — inactive
Out
C
Christian Haynes
(G) out — inactive
Out
J
Justin Joly
(TE) out — inactive
Out
J
Jamree Kromah
(DE) out — inactive
Out
M
Marcellas Dial Jr.
(CB) out — inactive
Out
Z
Zane Gonzalez
(PK) active — The Dolphins elevated Gonzalez from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Active
W
Will Kacmarek
(TE) active — Kacmarek (hamstring) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's battle against the Patriots, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.
Active
M
Malik Washington
(WR) active — Washington (knee) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Patriots, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.
Active
G
Greg Dulcich
(TE) active — Dulcich (ankle) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Patriots, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.
Active
T
Tucker Addington
(LS) active
Active
M
Michael Taaffe
(S) active
Active
D
Dante Trader Jr.
(S) active
Active
W
Willie Gay Jr.
(LB) active — Gay (illness) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports.
Active
J
Jaylen Wright
(RB) active — Wright (quadriceps/foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports.
Active
J
Jacob Rodriguez
(LB) active — Rodriguez tallied four tackles (one solo) during Miami's win over the Jets on Sunday.
Active
J
Jordyn Brooks
(LB) active — Brooks posted nine tackles (five solo) during the Dolphins' win Sunday over the Jets.
Active
K
Kevin Coleman Jr.
(WR) active — Coleman did not catch his only target in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Active
C
Chris Bell
(WR) active — Bell caught three of his four targets for 25 yards in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday.
Active
K
Kaytron Allen
(RB) active — Allen logged six snaps on special teams and didn't show up on the box score otherwise during Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets.
Active
D
DJ Campbell
(G) active
Active
Box Score
FINAL
New England Patriots
Patriots
24
-
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
19
New England Patriots -7.0
64% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: New England Patriots -7.0 (-110) LOSS · Recorded 2026-10-30T20:44:15.512700 UTC

OMEGA line is -11.5 vs market -7.0 — a 4.5-point model edge, with recent form EWMA gap (24.9 vs 19.1) supporting the road side.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

+10.1 EV
per $100 wagered
New England Patriots 64% Sharp Lean
"Patriots -7.0: OMEGA independent line says -11.0 (4-pt model edge) vs a 1-6 Miami team that's 0-3 at home — 64% confidence, 1.0u, with the weather-boosted under 41.5 at 0.5u."
82% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 82%
Book Implied 78%
Edge +4.5%
Line Movement
Current Patriots -7.0 / Total 41.5
Movement No movement data available
HIGH WIND (15 mph): -12% passing, +15% under bias PRECIPITATION (Light rain): +18% under bias, +25% fumbles New England missing TreVeyon Henderson (RB) and Hunter Henry (TE) — limits offensive ceilings Miami 0-3 at home; 1-6 overall vs Patriots 5-3
On the spread at -110, a 82.0% cover probability (model-driven, small-sample caveat: N<50 for team-level data this season) implies EV of roughly +$10 per $100. On the -345 moneyline, breakeven is 77.5% and the -345 juice destroys value versus the spread — pass the ML price, take the spread.
FULL ANALYSIS
Model vs market: OMEGA puts this at -11.0, the book at -7.0, and 7 is a key NFL number (9.2% land rate), so the half-point buy matters as much as the side. NE's EWMA form (24.6 points equivalent) is 5.6 better than Miami's (19.0), and Miami is 0-3 at home this year. Weather: 15 mph wind plus light rain knocks down passing and drags the 41.5 total down — under is the play at 0.5u, but totals are historically our weakest market (48.7% WR) so stay small.
SHARP MONEY
No live sharp/public split data supplied, but the OMEGA independent line (-11.0) vs market (-7.0) is a 4-point quant edge toward New England; treat as model-side signal, not confirmed sharp action. Sample-size caveat applies to EWMA form inputs (N small).
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New England Patriots -7.0
+10.1 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New England Patriots None
50%
TOTAL under 41.5
+2.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
New England Patriots -345
  • No play: at -345 breakeven is 77.5%, and the ML confidence ceiling for this unvalidated-slate sport is 65 — the math cannot clear a -345 price
  • Spread is the efficient vehicle for the 4-point model edge
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
New England Patriots -7.0
  • OMEGA independent line -11.0 vs market -7.0 is a 4.0-point model edge, and 7.0 is a key NFL number — the half-point buy at up to -120 is worth ~4.6% cover probability
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 41.5
  • Wind at 15 mph (-12% passing, +15% under) plus light rain (+18% under) stacks a combined knockdown on a 41.5 total, and OMEGA's scoring model (15.5-26.4, 41.9 predicted) sits barely above the number anyway
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Patriots -7 at -105: model line is 11.5 vs market 7.0 (+$10.60/100 EV), sized 1u while the -325 ML price is a pass.
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