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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
1 - 5
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays +119 ML: +5.2% Bayesian edge + MC 46.6% win vs PIT 58.9% implied (whales fade)"
EV / $100
+28.7
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
34.2%
ML
192 / -192

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Tampa Bay Rays

Pittsburgh Pirates

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -143 / 120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -137 / 124 -
Value Line - -148 / 118 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (285) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (150) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 161 / -161 -131 / 131 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) is playing catch from 90 feet, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 15-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Uceta will be shut down for 2-to-3 weeks after being diagnosed with a right shoulder strain, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Pepiot's injured right hip felt "unstable" while the pitcher played catch Monday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays signed Grove to a major-league contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder surgery.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert earned the save in Sunday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, allowing two earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out one over one inning of relief.
15-Day-IL
G
Garrett Cleavinger
(RP) 15-day IL — Cleavinger (calf) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Sunday, walking three and giving up a three-run home run in one-third of an inning.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Lux (shoulder) rolled his left ankle during an at-bat in a rehab game Saturday with Triple-A Durham, but the injury isn't "too severe," Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) is scheduled to resume running the bases next week, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) threw a live batting practice session Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Box Score
FINAL
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
1
-
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
5
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
60% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+28.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 60% Lean Calibrated
"Rays +119 ML: +5.2% Bayesian edge + MC 46.6% win vs PIT 58.9% implied (whales fade)"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current PIT -1.5 -143 / TB +1.5 +121; O/U 8.5
Movement No significant movement
+13.9 EV on Rays ML at +119; breakeven 45.7% vs our 52%
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in strong tier; N=552 MLB graded
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega pick'em spread and Rays ML favoritism clash with market PIT -143 pricing, backed by Bayesian -5.2% edge and MC 46.6% Rays win prob (N=10k sims). Whales $305k extreme PIT but contradict Tier1 models; sharp ML Rays. Total proj 21.6 crushes 8.5 line but totals 48.7% historic WR caps conviction.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+28.7 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+13.9 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+22.4 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Tampa Bay Rays 119
  • Bayesian posterior 53.6% PIT win vs market 58.9% implied; MC 46.6% Rays win (edge +5.2%)
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market PIT -1.5; MC margin -0.1 pts projects 65% Rays cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.5
  • MC proj 21.6 total / Omega 24.0 vs market 8.5; 75% model over prob
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
PIT +177 ML (+34 EV, 48.5% prob vs 36% implied) w/ extreme whales + MC edge; Under 24 (66% MC HIGH conf)
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