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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +1.9% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 2.2
"Giants +2.2 at 56% cover (Bayesian +6.3pp edge) vs juiced Phillies line, Omega even spread + injury tilt despite whales"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-2.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
47%
TOTAL over 7.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 0.6% divergence on ML with weak signal.
Sharp: home
Whale Activity Detected
$831444 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (82% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 316 trades Kalshi: 39 trades Largest: $48108
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
35.8%
ML
179 / -179

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -135 / 113 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -147 / 135 -
Value Line - -152 / 123 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (150) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value 159 / -159 -141 / 141 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 60-day IL — Oliva underwent left hamate bone surgery Thursday in Los Angeles, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — Susac (elbow) has begun a hitting program and is expected to resume throwing later this week, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) is throwing live batting practice Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader (hamstring) was cleared to resume running the bases Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — Butto underwent surgery Saturday to repair an artery in his right arm, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) earned a hold and struck out two in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 5-3 win over Las Vegas on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

J
Jhoan Duran
(RP) 15-day IL — Duran (oblique) could be ready to return within a couple days according to Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
15-Day-IL
J
J.T. Realmuto
(C) 10-day IL — Realmuto (back) took batting practice on the field and did agility in the outfield Tuesday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — The Phillies transferred Lazar (oblique) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (150)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Jared Oliva 60-Day-IL
Daniel Susac 10-Day-IL
Jhoan Duran 15-Day-IL
J.T. Realmuto 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 56% Lean
"Giants +2.2 at 56% cover (Bayesian +6.3pp edge) vs juiced Phillies line, Omega even spread + injury tilt despite whales"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.8%
Line Movement
Current Phillies -2.2 / Giants +2.2 | O/U 7.0 | Phillies -147 / Giants +127
Movement No significant movement detected
Net injury edge to Giants (-1.8%) No starting pitchers available - high variance
Positive EV on Giants ML (+127) at 47.2% posterior vs 40.5% implied; spread and over also +EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows Giants +2.2 cover at 56.3% posterior (edge +6.3pp) with Omega even spread vs market -2.2, backed by MC 47.9% Giants win and injury edge (-1.8% Phillies). Over 7.0 crushes at 65.2% posterior amid absurdly low total vs projected 20+ runs (Omega 22.5, MC 20.2). Whale extreme on Phillies ($657k) and mixed sharp signals cap at Lean; no pitchers adds variance.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
+7.1 EV 47%
TOTAL over 7.0
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 47%
San Francisco Giants 127
  • Away ML posterior 47.2% vs market 40.5% implied (+6.7pp edge), sharp ML on away
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
San Francisco Giants 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Giants cover -2.2 vs market 50%, Omega spread 0.0 shows 2.2pt edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp), Omega total 22.5 and MC projected ~20.2
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies -2.2 +3.2 EV from 14.9% sharp spread edge + $126K extreme whales despite Pinnacle fair line
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