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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.8% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 2.2
"Guardians +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge, Omega 0 spread) + Over 10 (65% prob, MC 19.7 total) vs juiced home line"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
46%
TOTAL over 10.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$591174 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (71% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 320 trades Kalshi: 159 trades Largest: $34654
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
38.0%
ML
163 / -163

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 100 / -120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 104 / -115 -
Value Line - -106 / -118 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-370) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-156) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-118)
De-Vigged Fair Value -147 / 147 109 / -109 O/U -110 / 110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Cooper Ingle
(C) day-to-day — Triple-A Columbus placed Ingle on the 7-day injured list April 24 with right hip inflammation.
Day-To-Day
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — Armstrong struck out one over a scoreless inning to pick up a hold in Friday's 4-1 win over the Cubs.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL

Athletics

J
Jeffrey Springs
(SP) day-to-day — Springs (hip) is expected to be available for his next scheduled start, Jason Burke of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) is expected to shed his walking boot and start a running progression this week, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — The Athletics placed Muncy on the 10-day injured list Tuesday due to a fractured fifth metacarpal in his left hand.
10-Day-IL
J
JJ Goss
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) has begun a throwing progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-370)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Carlos Hernandez Day-To-Day
Jeffrey Springs Day-To-Day
Denzel Clarke 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 56% Lean
"Guardians +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge, Omega 0 spread) + Over 10 (65% prob, MC 19.7 total) vs juiced home line"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.6%
Line Movement
Current Athletics -2.2 / Guardians +2.2 | Total 10.0 | ML Athletics -131 / Guardians +114
Movement No significant movement
Slight negative EV on Guardians ML due to 46.4% posterior vs +114 breakeven 46.7%; positive EV on spread (+7.5) and total over (+24.5)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread 0 vs market -2.2 home gives Guardians +2.2 56.3% cover prob (+6.3pp edge, EV +7.5); MC 19.7 total crushes 10 line (65% over, EV +24.5) with posteriors fusing Poisson/ELO. Mixed sharps (spread home signal) vs PM/whale home but early CLV +2.2pts and Bayesian away edge confirm value. Equal -8.7% injuries, no situational flags, degraded data caps conf.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
-0.7 EV 46%
TOTAL over 10.0
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 46%
Cleveland Guardians 114
  • Posterior 46.4% vs market implied 43.3% (+3.1pp), but below +114 breakeven 46.7%
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Cleveland Guardians 2.2
  • Posterior 56.3% Guardians cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge); Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 (early value +2.2pts)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 10.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over 10 vs market 50% (+15.2pp edge); MC projects 19.7 total, Omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics spread: 13% sharp edge +47.8 EV vs retail, injuries boost home (+1.3%) despite whale contrarian.
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