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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +6.0% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 1.5
"Orioles +1.5 +28 EV vs juiced Yankees runline (Omega 0.0 spread), over 8.5 +15pp Bayesian edge on 19.2 MC proj"
EV / $100
+28.4
Win Prob
63%
Edge
+12.7%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
62%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 3.1% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$1553230 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (82% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 472 trades Kalshi: 1287 trades Largest: $39871
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +168.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
30.0%
ML
233 / -233

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 150 / -185 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 130 / -141 -
Value Line - 145 / -182 -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-121) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -116 / 116 136 / -136 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Monday that Stanton will undergo tests on his injured right calf in hopes of being cleared to ramp up his running this week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Caballero
(SS) day-to-day — Caballero is absent from the lineup for Monday's contest in Baltimore.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) completed five innings in his rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out eight batters.
15-Day-IL
J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Dominguez will miss "a few weeks" after an MRI revealed a low-grade AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day

Baltimore Orioles

S
Samuel Basallo
(C) day-to-day — Manager Craig Albernaz stated after Monday's win over the Yankees that Basallo (knee) is fine, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 60-day IL — The Orioles transferred Kjerstad (hamstring) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Kremer (quadriceps) has begun a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles announced Monday that Hiraldo (shoulder) has resumed a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Helsley
(RP) 15-day IL — The Orioles announced Monday that Helsley (elbow) hasn't been cleared to start a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Rogers (illness) said that he threw a "simulated bullpen" session Saturday and is optimistic that he'll be able to return from the 15-day injured list to make a start during the Orioles' three-game series versus the Yankees that begins Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) will play at third base in a rehab game with Double-A Chesapeake on Sunday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg will have a follow-up appointment for his right elbow sprain Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cade Povich
(SP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-121)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Jose Caballero Day-To-Day
Samuel Basallo Day-To-Day
Heston Kjerstad 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

+28.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 64% Sharp Lean
"Orioles +1.5 +28 EV vs juiced Yankees runline (Omega 0.0 spread), over 8.5 +15pp Bayesian edge on 19.2 MC proj"
63% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 63%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.7%
Line Movement
Current ML Yankees -168 / Orioles +139 | Runline Yankees -1.5 -168 / Orioles +1.5 +140 | Total 8.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Marginal +EV on Yankees ML vs devigged market; stronger on Orioles +1.5 (est. 59% cover vs 41.7% breakeven) and over 8.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even spread (0.0) and MC -0.4 margin scream value on Orioles +1.5 vs -168 juice despite Bayesian away ML edge. Over 8.5 has massive 15.2pp posterior edge with 19.2 MC total amid no pitcher data. Sharp/whale home + extreme $1.5M volume conflicts model but boosts +1.5 conviction; degraded data caps at leans.
SHARP MONEY
3.1% sharp edge on Orioles ML + RLM absence; +EV home ML at retail books
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles 1.5
+28.4 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+2.7 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+12.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
New York Yankees -168
  • Bayesian posterior 62.7% away win vs 58.2% devigged market prior (+4.5pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Baltimore Orioles 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC margin -0.4 vs market Yankees -1.5 creates 17pp edge on Orioles +1.5 cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.2, Omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees ML +1.4 EV (61.9% posterior vs 55.6% mkt) but extreme whales Orioles; MC under 22.5 74.9%
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