Mixed Martial Arts
Bruna Brasil
Brasil
Alexia Thainara
Thainara
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreBruna Brasil
Alexia Thainara
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Bruna Brasil @ Alexia Thainara
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Alexia Thainara
66%
Sharp Lean
"Thainara -180 ML (+3.2 EV): 82% TDD crushes Brasil's striking volume, 62% model win prob"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.0%
Line Movement
Open
omega_model
Current
Alexia Thainara -180 / Bruna Brasil +150 (Spread: Alexia Thainara -3.5)
Movement
N/A - model generated
+3.2 EV on home ML at model price despite vig-equivalent edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Thainara's grappling edge (2.1 TDs/15min, 82% TDD) exploits Brasil's standup-only style (0.4 TDs/game). Model sims show 62% Thainara win prob via decision (1.8 rounds avg). Zero market forces pure model play at +3.2 EV home ML.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Alexia Thainara -180
- Alexia Thainara's 3.5" reach advantage + superior striking volume (5.2 SPM vs Bruna's 4.1) projects 64% win probability
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Alexia Thainara -3.5
- Expected decision win margin of 4.2 points based on control time projection (7:20 min)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
- Both fighters project <25% KO rate in matchup; 68% historical decision rate for similar striker styles
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Alexia Thainara ML (-180 model) +4.8 EV on reach/striking edge vs Bruna's TDD hole; under 2.5 (68% decision)
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