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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.2% EV ALIGNED
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"Yankees -1.5 at +265 Bovada shows +44.2% EV with sharp money convergence and $1.5M whale volume — the strongest signal on the board despite degraded data quality"
EV / $100
+44.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-12.5%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
60%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1544559 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (79% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 646 trades Kalshi: 96 trades Largest: $54000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
29.6%
ML
238 / -238

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -143 / 120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -137 / 124 -
Value Line - -137 / 112 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (265) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (143) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 153 / -153 -131 / 131 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

M
Matt Seelinger
(RP) Developmental List
developmental list
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Wenceel Perez
(RF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Perez won't require surgery for the left orbital fracture he sustained June 16, but the outfielder lacks a clear timeline for a return, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports. "It's not, from what I understand, where it's going to be something long term," Hinch said of Perez's injury. "But it doesn't mean it heals itself fast. He's feeling better and better and reporting progress."
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Meadows (forearm) has yet to resume hitting and is without a timeline to return from the 60-day injured list, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Smith (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (oblique) received a cortisone injection Friday and is expected to start up his rehab program in the next day or two, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) has been scratched from a scheduled start Sunday versus the White Sox due to a left hamstring injury, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Yankees

M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aarone Boone said Tuesday that Fried (elbow) is scheduled to throw another session of live batting practice Sunday, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
(2B) day-to-day — Manager Aaron Boone said Chisholm (head) has one remaining concussion test to pass before fully clearing the protocol, but the second baseman is expected to be available off the bench Tuesday against the Tigers, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan McMahon
(3B) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that McMahon (illness) will play a rehab game with Double-A Somerset on Wednesday before being activated from the 10-day injured list Friday.
10-Day-IL
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that Grisham (hamstring) will play a rehab game with Double-A Somerset on Wednesday before being activated from the 10-day injured list Friday.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Stanton (calf) has restarted a running program and will take live at-bats against rehabbing left-hander Max Fried (elbow) on Tuesday, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
D
David Bednar
(RP) Paternity — The Yankees placed Bednar on the paternity list Monday.
paternity
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Judge isn't expected to be ready for a re-evaluation later this week, when he'll be at the four-week mark in his recovery from a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (265)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Matt Seelinger developmental list
Jackson Jobe 60-Day-IL
Max Fried 15-Day-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

+44.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 68% Strong
"Yankees -1.5 at +265 Bovada shows +44.2% EV with sharp money convergence and $1.5M whale volume — the strongest signal on the board despite degraded data quality"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 59%
Edge -12.5%
Line Movement
Current N/A
Movement No significant line movement detected
Injury impact roughly equal on both sides (-7.8% each) No starting pitcher data available — high uncertainty Yankees missing key bats: Stanton (IL), Chisholm (DTD), McMahon (IL)
The calibrated posterior (46.4%) is well below the market prior (58.9%), producing a -12.4pp negative edge on the Yankees moneyline. The quantitative models see the Tigers as the better side, but the market has already priced the Yankees as heavy favorites. No positive EV on the home side.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion model sees massive value on the Tigers side (+12.4pp edge on moneyline) and the over (+15.2pp edge on total), but the data quality is degraded (68%) with no starting pitcher data available. The OMEGA independent line projects a 22.5 total — clearly a model artifact from missing pitcher adjustments. Sharp money signals are mixed: the spread shows strong sharp action on the Yankees (-1.5) with +44.2% EV at Bovada, while the moneyline shows weak sharp action on the Tigers. The Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 games) projects a 9.4-10.4 game (total 19.8), supporting the over. The Bayesian posterior (65.2% over) is the most reliable signal. The Tigers moneyline at +119 offers positive EV but the data quality degradation (68%) and conflicting model signals cap confidence. The Yankees spread at -1.5 is the strongest signal with sharp money convergence, whale activity ($1.5M+), and +44.2% EV at Bovada.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp vs Public analysis shows 13.8% edge on home spread with strong signal. Whale signals show 80% confidence on home side with $1.5M+ volume (EXTREME tier). +EV analysis shows +44.2% EV on home spread at Bovada. Three independent sharp signals converge on home side.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+44.2 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+12.4 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Detroit Tigers 119
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 53.6% away win probability vs market 41.1% — a +12.4pp edge
  • Monte Carlo simulation gives Tigers 54.2% win probability
  • Sharp money side is away on moneyline (+0.5% edge)
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • Sharp vs Public shows 13.8% edge on home spread with strong signal; +EV analysis shows +44.2% EV on home spread at Bovada; whale signals show 80% confidence on home side with $1.5M+ volume
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0% — a +15.2pp edge
  • Monte Carlo simulation projects total of 19.8 (9.4 + 10.4), well above the 9.5 market line
  • OMEGA independent line projects total of 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Total over 8.0 has +26.9% EV with Bayesian 65.2% probability, sharp conflicts on spread but total remains unopposed.
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