MLS
Chicago Fire FC
FC
D.C. United
United
Whale Activity Detected
$261292 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 220 trades
Largest: $4103
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
41.7%
ML
140 / -140
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAChicago Fire FC
D.C. United
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.4
Moneyline
D.C 105
/
CHI -105
Win Probability
49%
-
51%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Chicago Fire FC @ D.C. United
+18.2 EV
per $100 wagered
D.C. United
60%
Lean
"DC +0.5/+165 ML: +3.6% Bayesian edge + extreme whales $261k, model 7.5 total crushes 2.5 line"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
41%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-8.6%
Line Movement
Current
Chicago Fire FC -0.5 (-190) / D.C. United +0.5 (+135); ML Chicago Fire FC -145 / D.C. United +165; Total 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+EV on D.C. United ML at +165 (breakeven 37.7%, our 41.4%); over 2.5 +23.9 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega projects even 3.8-3.8 goals (total 7.5) vs mgmt 2.5, driving +14.9pp over edge; Bayesian fuses to 41.4% DC win (+3.6pp vs 37.7% implied) with extreme $261k whales (institutional tier). MC 42.8% home win confirms tight spread value at +0.5 (+135 juice mismatch). Low agreement reduces conf, but EV clear on DC sides.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($261k, 35 profitable wallets, 64% confidence on home) - institutional signal equivalent to steam move
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
D.C. United 165
- Bayesian posterior 41.4% vs market 37.7% (+3.6pp edge); exceeds breakeven by 3.7pp
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
D.C. United 0.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market CHI -0.5 (0.5pt edge); Dixon-Coles home +0.5 cover ~59% (win 40.6% + draw 18.7%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 2.5
- Posterior over 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp); omega total 7.5, expected scores 3.8-3.8
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 2.5 (+5 edge, 64.9% over post), DC ML +3.6% Bayesian edge + extreme whales $254k
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