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MLB
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +38.7% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 314
"MIA +248 ML: 52% model prob vs 29% implied (+81 EV) as omega even spread 0.0 crushes -314 juice"
EV / $100
+45.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
62%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.9% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$319322 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 143 trades Kalshi: 347 trades Largest: $22758
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +314.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
47.2%
ML
112 / -112

Player Props Engine

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Miami Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -305 / 245 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -294 / 254 -
Value Line - -335 / 245 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (150) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-132) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -125 / 125 -278 / 278 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

C
Christopher Morel
(LF) 10-day IL — Morel (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on Tuesday, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out

Los Angeles Dodgers

M
Mookie Betts
(SS) 10-day IL — Betts (oblique) could kick off a minor-league rehab assignment as soon as the weekend of May 1-3, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) has been facing live pitching but is still doing only straight-line running, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Snell (shoulder) will draw another start with Single-A Ontario on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
M
Max Muncy
(3B) day-to-day — Muncy (illness) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Cubs, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Day-To-Day
W
Will Smith
(C) day-to-day — Smith (back) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Cubs, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol's velocity during recent bullpen sessions has reached the high-90s as he rehabs from right shoulder surgery, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 15-day IL — Diaz shared on his personal Instagram account Wednesday that he underwent surgery on his throwing elbow.
15-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred from Single-A Ontario to Triple-A Oklahoma City, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 15-day IL — Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (150)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Christopher Morel 10-Day-IL
Griffin Conine 10-Day-IL
Mookie Betts 10-Day-IL
Tommy Edman 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+45.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Marlins 60% Lean
"MIA +248 ML: 52% model prob vs 29% implied (+81 EV) as omega even spread 0.0 crushes -314 juice"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: LAD -314 | Total: 8.5 | ML: LAD -314 / MIA +248
Movement No significant movement
Huge discrepancy: model 48% home win vs 76% implied creates +81 EV on MIA ML
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project even 10.3-9.8 game (48-52% MIA win prob) vs market -314 Dodgers blowout pricing 76% home. Bayesian -2.1% edge away confirmed by ML sharp 1.8% despite spread RLM home. Whales extreme home ($319k) contradict model--reduce; totals weak historically. Data degraded/no pitchers caps sizing.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Miami Marlins 314
+45.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
+81.0 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+12.4 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Miami Marlins 248
  • Model win prob 52% (Omega 47.2% home, MC 49.9%) vs 28.8% implied breakeven, exceeds by 23%
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Miami Marlins 0
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -314, MC margin +0.5 home (49.9% cover), Bayesian edge favors away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.5
  • Omega total 22.5 and MC proj 20.1 (10.3-9.8) >> market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers +148: $201k extreme whales (80% conf) + Kalshi 68% vs OMEGA 40% = +29 EV; MC 73% under 24
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