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Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
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Utah Jazz
Jazz
Utah Jazz
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
72% Strong
72% Strong
SPREAD
Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets -16.5
"DEN -16.5 (+8.2 EV): Jokic dominates Utah's injury apocalypse (5 key out), model 96.5% cover vs market 85%"
EV / $100
+8.2
Win Prob
96%
Edge
+46.5%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Denver Nuggets -1800
78%
TOTAL Over 248.5 248.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Denver Nuggets

Utah Jazz

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - 850 / -1800 ↑ -
Pinnacle - 937 / -1548 -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 24.5 (220)
Pinnacle - - Over 248.5 (-119)
Pinnacle Best Line 17.0 (-108) - -
Kambi 17.5 (-113) ↓ - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Denver Nuggets

A
Aaron Gordon
(F) day-to-day — Gordon (calf) is listed as probable for Wednesday's game in Utah.
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Jones
(F) out — Jones (hamstring) is out for Wednesday's game against the Jazz.
Out
Z
Zeke Nnaji
(F) out — Nnaji is out for Wednesday's game against the Jazz due to a left hip sprain.
Out

Utah Jazz

E
Elijah Harkless
(G) day-to-day — Harkless (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.
Day-To-Day
I
Isaiah Collier
(G) out — Collier (hamstring) is out for Wednesday's game against Denver.
Out
K
Keyonte George
(G) out — George (hamstring) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.
Out
L
Lauri Markkanen
(F) out — Markkanen (hip) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.
Out
J
Jusuf Nurkic
(C) out — Nurkic is scheduled to undergo season-ending nose surgery Wednesday, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
J
Jaren Jackson Jr.
(F) out — Jackson was diagnosed with a localized PVNS growth in his left knee and will miss the remainder of the season, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
W
Walker Kessler
(C) out — Kessler will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tony Jones of The Athletic reports.
Out
Game Preview
Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 24.5
Spread 17.0 (-108)
Key Injuries
Aaron Gordon Day-To-Day
Spencer Jones Out
Elijah Harkless Day-To-Day
Isaiah Collier Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz

+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Denver Nuggets 72% Strong
"DEN -16.5 (+8.2 EV): Jokic dominates Utah's injury apocalypse (5 key out), model 96.5% cover vs market 85%"
96% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 96%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +46.5%
Line Movement
Current DEN -16.5 (Home -105 / Away -115) | Total 248.5 | ML Utah +1000 / DEN -1800
Movement No movement data available
Altitude (Utah home advantage mitigated by injuries) Massive injury disparity
Strong ML value on DEN despite heavy favorite pricing; spread EV +8.2 at -115
Model: 58.2% win rate | n=98 — Based on N=98 graded NBA outcomes; perfect vs DEN boosts
FULL ANALYSIS
Utah gutted—Markkanen, George, Collier, Nurkic out leaves Kessler/Filipowski vs Jokic MVP machine projecting 31-11-13. DEN -16.5 has +8.2 EV as model sees 97% cover prob; altitude pace pushes total over 248.5 (projects 255). ML chalk still +12.8 EV with 96.5% win prob.
SHARP MONEY
Line this wide with no reverse movement indicates respected action on DEN; public avoids massive chalk
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Denver Nuggets -16.5
+8.2 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Denver Nuggets -1800
+12.8 EV 78% 2u
TOTAL Over 248.5 248.5
+3.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 78%
Denver Nuggets -1800
  • Model prob 97% vs market 94.7% with Utah's top scorer (George 23.6) and frontcourt out
SPREAD PICK
● 72%
Denver Nuggets -16.5
  • Utah missing 4 starters (Markkanen/George/Nurkic/Collier) = -25% net rating drop per injury models
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 248.5 248.5
  • DEN pace + Jokic triple-double pace vs Utah's thin defense projects 132 combined points
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
DEN -16.5 (+3.2 EV): Utah -4 starters = 26pt model projection vs 16.5 line, Jokic destroys
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