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MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 1.5
"Athletics +102 vs injury-ravaged Dodgers — Bayesian 8.2pp edge, $413K whale volume on home side, Kalshi 46.5% above retail implied. Total market inflated — under 10.5 has Monte Carlo support."
EV / $100
+3.0
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+4.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
59%
TOTAL under 10.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$421451 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (82% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 157 trades Kalshi: 113 trades Largest: $20000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.0
Win Prob
29.2%
ML
242 / -242

Player Props Engine

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -104 / -106 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-159) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.5 (-110)
De-Vigged Fair Value -150 / 150 101 / -101 O/U -103 / 103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

T
Teoscar Hernandez
(LF) 10-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Saturday that Hernandez (hamstring) will be activated off the injured list ahead of Monday's series opener versus the Athletics, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Treinen
(RP) 15-day IL — Treinen does not have any structural damage in his injured right elbow, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — Knack (chest) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding two runs on five hits and one walk over 1.1 innings.
60-Day-IL
K
Kendall George
(CF) out — George (knee) has been rehabbing at the Dodgers' spring training facility in Arizona and is on track to return after the All-Star break, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
Out
W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts said Sunday that Smith (neck) won't travel with the Dodgers for their upcoming road trip, which begins Monday and runs through July 1, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) is throwing in the bullpen Friday at Dodger Stadium, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez (oblique) has started some baseball activities but remains in the early stages of his rehab, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has yet to resume throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Chris Campos
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL

Athletics

J
Jacob Wilson
(SS) day-to-day — Wilson (shoulder) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Angels.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Soderstrom
(LF) day-to-day — Soderstrom (hip) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Angels.
Day-To-Day
W
Wei-En Lin
(P) out — Lin is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
Out
Z
Zack Gelof
(3B) 10-day IL — The Athletics placed Gelof on the 10-day injured list Thursday with a right hand contusion.
10-Day-IL
M
Mark Leiter Jr.
(RP) 15-day IL — Leiter (hip) began a throwing progression Monday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brent Rooker
(DH) 10-day IL — Rooker (knee) is still not participating in any baseball activities as of Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 60-day IL — Clarke (hamstring) has started to play catch and has also begun a swinging progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Luis Severino
(SP) 60-day IL — The Athletics transferred Severino (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brooks Kriske
(RP) 60-day IL — Kriske (shoulder) began a throwing progression Thursday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) will be sidelined for the rest of the 2026 season after undergoing surgery on his left hip Monday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-159)
Total Over 10.5
Key Injuries
Teoscar Hernandez 10-Day-IL
Blake Treinen 15-Day-IL
Jacob Wilson Day-To-Day
Tyler Soderstrom Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics

+3.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 56% Lean
"Athletics +102 vs injury-ravaged Dodgers — Bayesian 8.2pp edge, $413K whale volume on home side, Kalshi 46.5% above retail implied. Total market inflated — under 10.5 has Monte Carlo support."
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 55%
Edge +4.1%
Line Movement
Current Dodgers -123 / Athletics +102, Total 10.5
Movement No significant movement detected.
Dodgers missing Teoscar Hernandez (10-day IL), Will Smith (10-day IL), and two relievers (60-day IL) — lineup is significantly degraded. Athletics with Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof on IL but Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom probable — home lineup still above replacement. Bayesian regime is BREAKOUT (scoring model weight > ELO) — Athletics may be improving faster than record shows. Monte Carlo simulation gives Athletics 51.7% win probability compared to market implied 44.8% — sizable gap. Whale volume extreme ($413K, 83% on Athletics) from 33 profitable Polymarket wallets — strong institutional money backing the home side. Prediction markets (Kalshi) show Athletics 46.5% — still above what retail books imply, validating the undervalue.
Positive EV on Athletics moneyline (+102) derived from calibrated (58.7% win probability vs market 50.5%) and simulation away win rate of 51.7%. Athletics at home with Dodgers missing key offensive core provide a meaningful edge.
FULL ANALYSIS
Athletics at +102 vs a depleted Dodgers lineup (Hernandez, Smith, two relievers out) offers real CLV edge. Bayesian fusion gives them 58.7% win probability vs market 50.5% — an 8.2pp gap. Monte Carlo simulation projects them winning outright at 51.7%, and 33 profitable whale wallets have placed $413K (83% on home side). The total market (10.5) is inflated given both teams missing key bats — Monte Carlo sees a 20.2-game average but with high variance; still, under has the sharper signal (71.5% under at 22.5 in MC). Lean Athletics ML as the primary play, under the total as a secondary, and spread +1.5 as a low-trust hedge.
SHARP MONEY
Whale volume (33 profitable wallets, $413K total, 83% on Athletics) is extreme and aligns with Bayesian posterior edge (+8.2pp on away ML). No contradictory sharp movement detected. Prediction market (46.5%) is also above retail book implied (44.8%) — consistent with sharp money shading toward Athletics.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 1.5
+3.0 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+7.5 EV 59% 1u
TOTAL under 10.5
+4.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Athletics 102
  • Bayesian posterior (58.7% vs market 50.5%) plus Monte Carlo 51.7% win rate — +102 odds on a team with institutional whale backing and a depleted opponent lineup
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Athletics 1.5
  • Bayesian spread posterior (53.9% cover) plus Monte Carlo 51.7% win rate — Athletics should keep this close if not win outright
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 10.5
  • Monte Carlo simulated total 20.2 (under 71.5% at 22.5), but actual market total 10.5 — substantial gap suggests the market is overrating scoring potential given both teams' injury-depleted lineups
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics +214: Bayesian edge +9.1pp, whale signal EXTREME ($399K at 84% confidence), and both teams missing key bats — +18.8% EV on the dog
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