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NHL
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth
Mammoth
Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK
54% Lean
54% Lean
MONEYLINE
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth None
EV / $100
-8.1
Win Prob
50%
Edge
-4.5%
SPREAD Utah Mammoth -1.5
54%
TOTAL under 6.5
54%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.2% divergence on ML with moderate signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$57368 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 9 trades Largest: $13659

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Utah Mammoth

Montreal Canadiens

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 102 / -122 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 106 / -119 -
Value Line - 100 / -118 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.5 (-240) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-239) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-265) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-105)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value -222 / 222 112 / -112 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Utah Mammoth

K
Kailer Yamamoto
(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
John Marino
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
M
Maveric Lamoureux
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Montreal Canadiens

I
Ivan Demidov
(RW) Injured Reserve — Demidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports.
Injured Reserve
N
Nick Suzuki
(C) day-to-day — Suzuki (hand) is questionable for Thursday's game against Utah, per Stu Cowan of The Montreal Gazette.
Day-To-Day
K
Kirby Dach
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Matheson
(D) out — Matheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday.
Out
S
Sam Montembeault
(G) Injured Reserve — Montembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday.
Injured Reserve
B
Bryce Pickford
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
L
Lucas Condotta
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Utah Mammoth @ Montreal Canadiens
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-240)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Kailer Yamamoto Day-To-Day
John Marino Injured Reserve
Ivan Demidov Injured Reserve
Nick Suzuki Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Utah Mammoth (-122) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T19:42:38.449283 UTC

Market Consensus fair value (53.3% away) runs 1.1% above retail's 49.5% home lean, giving Utah the only directional read — but posterior edge is 0.0pp, well below the 59.9% needed at -122.

Spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5 (+195) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-04T19:39:13.023586 UTC

Sharp spread edge is 1.3% toward away (moderate), but the +1.5 home cover posterior is 68.8% fair — laying -1.5 at +195 needs 33.9% and our model gives 31.3%.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Utah Mammoth @ Montreal Canadiens

+-8.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Utah Mammoth 54% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Sharps lean Utah (-122) with Pinnacle fair value 53.3% vs retail 49.5%, but 0.0pp posterior edge and whale money on Montreal make this a no-bet — all three markets.
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 55%
Edge -4.5%
Line Movement
Open ML: Home 102 / Away -122, Spread: 1.5, Total: 6.5
Current ML: Home 102 / Away -122, Spread: 1.5 (Home -238 / Away +195), Total: 6.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
At -122 the breakeven is 54.95% and our fused posterior is only 50.5% — this is -8.1 EV per $100. No side of this game clears the edge threshold.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp books see Utah 53.3% fair vs the retail coin-flip price, and Montreal's IR list (Demidov, Matheson, Montembeault) is crushing home lambdas -25%. But the Bayesian posterior is dead even (+0.0pp every market), whale money stacks the other side at $57K on home, and the NHL model is PAUSED at -13.9% ROI with 25% CLV beat — there's no provable edge at -122/54.95% breakeven.
SHARP MONEY
Pinnacle de-vigged fair value shows away 53.3% vs retail shading home; 1.1-1.3% sharp edge on ML and spread with moderate signal. But whale wallets ($57K volume, STRONG tier, 100% one-sided) are on HOME — contradicting sharps. Per synthesis rules, default to sharp money (Pinnacle) over prediction-market whales.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Utah Mammoth None
-8.1 EV 54%
SPREAD Utah Mammoth -1.5
-7.7 EV 54%
TOTAL under 6.5
-3.6 EV 54%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Utah Mammoth -122
  • Market Consensus fair value (53.3% away) runs 1.1% above retail's 49.5% home lean, giving Utah the only directional read — but posterior edge is 0.0pp, well below the 59.9% needed at -122
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Utah Mammoth -1.5
  • Sharp spread edge is 1.3% toward away (moderate), but the +1.5 home cover posterior is 68.8% fair — laying -1.5 at +195 needs 33.9% and our model gives 31.3%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 6.5
  • Depleted defenses on both sides (net -9.2% lambda adjustment) plus Market Consensus fair value of 50.6% under point to a low-scoring game, but the posterior edge is 0.0pp against a 52.4% implied
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Montreal ML at -109 with +6.5pp Bayesian edge — but tier-1 signals diverging so Lean only.
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