Home › MLB › St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
7 - 6
Final
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 0
"WSH spread +385 = +59.5 EV vs Pinnacle fair value + 13.9% sharp edge on depleted STL road trip"
EV / $100
+59.5
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.2%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
58%
TOTAL over 7.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +17.0
Win Prob
37.9%
ML
164 / -164

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will be shut down for 4-to-5 days before resuming a throwing program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Washington Nationals

J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals optioned Gray to Triple-A Rochester on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
7
-
Washington Nationals
Nationals
6
Washington Nationals 0
65% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

+59.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 65% Sharp Lean
"WSH spread +385 = +59.5 EV vs Pinnacle fair value + 13.9% sharp edge on depleted STL road trip"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.2%
Line Movement
Current WSH -118 / STL -102 | Total 7.0
Movement No movement data
Breakeven 50.5% for -102 away ML; our 45.8% prob shows no ML value. Spread WSH +385 offers +59.5 EV vs fair 32.9% prob
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — MLB 53.4% (N=322); Lean spreads/moneylines profitable but overconfident
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive +59.5 EV on WSH spread +385 (Bovada) vs Pinnacle fair 32.9% prob with 13.9% sharp divergence—exploit retail lag. Liberatore's 1.64 ERA gives STL pitching edge but WSH depleted rotation (5 arms out) creates value. Omega total 24 vs market 7 signals model error—fade totals hard.
SHARP MONEY
13.9% sharp edge on spread favoring home (Pinnacle 34.5% vs retail 20.6%) = strong syndicate signal
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 0
+59.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.0
+2.1 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Washington Nationals -112
  • ELO 62.3% Nats win prob vs market 52.4% implied despite Omega ML projecting Cardinals +170
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Washington Nationals 0.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO projects Nats -3.5 edge from 1488 rating vs 1401
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Omega total 24.0 extremely low for MLB (avg ~8.5/game); both rotations decimated
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
ELO Nats -3.5 edge vs pick'em market but decimated rotations cap at 55% toss-up; props on Griffin/Liberatore K's
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