Home › Bundesliga › St. Pauli @ 1. FC Union Berlin
Bundesliga
St. Pauli
St. Pauli
Pauli
1 - 0
LIVE
1. FC Union Berlin
Berlin
1. FC Union Berlin
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
1. FC Union Berlin 1. FC Union Berlin -0.5
"Union +100 ML value (55% model prob vs 50% implied) on better record vs road-weak St. Pauli, +4.5 EV"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE 1. FC Union Berlin None
65%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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St. Pauli

1. FC Union Berlin

Live Stats

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
1. -100 / ST. -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Live Box Score
LIVE
St. Pauli
Pauli
1
-
1. FC Union Berlin
Berlin
0

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Pauli @ 1. FC Union Berlin

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
1. FC Union Berlin 60% Lean
"Union +100 ML value (55% model prob vs 50% implied) on better record vs road-weak St. Pauli, +4.5 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current 1. FC Union Berlin -0.5 (-105) / St. Pauli +0.5 (-135); Total 2.5; ML Union +100 / St. Pauli +290
Movement No movement data
+4.5% EV on Union ML at +100 vs our 55% prob; St. Pauli +290 requires only 26% to break even but we see 45%
FULL ANALYSIS
Union's 8-7-12 record edges St. Pauli's 6-6-15, supporting +100 ML value (our 55% vs 50% implied) and -0.5 spread in home Berlin spot. Low totals expected in mid-table clash with no injuries—under 2.5 fits Bundesliga defensive norms. Limited data caps confidence but record differential + even money creates playable edge.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD 1. FC Union Berlin -0.5
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE 1. FC Union Berlin None
+4.5 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
1. FC Union Berlin 105
  • ML profitable tier historically; +105 offers +5.7% edge over breakeven (our 54.5% vs 48.8%)
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
1. FC Union Berlin -0.5
  • Union home win prob 54.5% vs -0.5 implied 58.3%, model sees +3.3% edge on home favorite
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Union low-scoring home games (model proj 2.3 total); totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Union ML +105 (+5.7% edge, 54.5% model vs 48.8% breakeven) home vs promoted St. Pauli
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