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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers None
"Williams 3.32 ERA vs Sproat 5.70 is a 2.38-run gap — total 7.5 is absurdly low, Bayesian edge +15.2pp, over 7.5 is the play"
EV / $100
+8.0
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+4.2%
Size
1.0u
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
60%
TOTAL over 7.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1258954 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (82% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 264 trades Kalshi: 20 trades Largest: $152772
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
44.7%
ML
124 / -124

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -125 / 105 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -119 / 110 -
Value Line - -122 / -103 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (350) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (176) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 188 / -188 -115 / 115 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

J
Jose Ramirez
(3B) 10-day IL — Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase DeLauter
(RF) day-to-day — DeLauter (ribs) isn't in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Brewers.
Day-To-Day
A
Angel Martinez
(LF) 10-day IL — Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated.
10-Day-IL
E
Erik Sabrowski
(RP) 15-day IL — Sabrowski (elbow) joined High-A Lake County on Sunday to begin a rehab assignment, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
Day-To-Day

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — Woodruff (shoulder) allowed three runs over 5.1 innings while notching six strikeouts in a rehab start with High-A Wisconsin on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 60-day IL — Priester (shoulder) will have a follow-up visit Tuesday with thoracic surgeon Dr. Gregory Pearl, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Coleman Crow
(SP) 15-day IL — Crow said Sunday that an MRI on his right forearm revealed a mild flexor strain, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
DL Hall
(RP) 15-day IL — Hall received an anti-inflammatory injection for his left pectoral strain Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) 10-day IL — Lockridge received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right knee Thursday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) transferred his rehab assignment to Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and could be activated from the injured list in about a week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brian Fitzpatrick
(RP) 60-day IL — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodriguez
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Henderson
(SP) 15-day IL — Henderson received an injection in his back Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.
15-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (350)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jose Ramirez 10-Day-IL
Chase DeLauter Day-To-Day
Brandon Woodruff 15-Day-IL
Quinn Priester 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers

+8.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 60% Lean
"Williams 3.32 ERA vs Sproat 5.70 is a 2.38-run gap — total 7.5 is absurdly low, Bayesian edge +15.2pp, over 7.5 is the play"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 56%
Edge +4.2%
Line Movement
Open Home -126 / Away +104, Total 7.5, Spread -1.5
Current No significant movement detected
Movement Flat — no notable steam or reverse movement observed
Starting pitching mismatch: Williams 9-3, 3.32 vs Sproat 1-4, 5.70 Home pitcher injury-adjusted: Brewers -6.9% net, Guardians -8.7% net → slight home advantage Venue: American Family Field, neutral park factors Wind 4mph, overcast, no weather impact
Our win probability of 60.0% vs market of 55.8% yields +$8 EV per $100 on the moneyline. The pitching advantage (Williams 3.32 ERA vs Sproat 5.70) is being undervalued by the market, creating a real edge.
FULL ANALYSIS
Gavin Williams (3.32 ERA, 9-3) vs Brandon Sproat (5.70, 1-4) is a massive pitching mismatch being underpriced at -126. The Bayesian model fuses Poisson projections (22.5 runs) with the market's 7.5 total, producing a +15.2pp edge on the over — the widest total gap in today's slate. Sharp spread divergence (13.9%) and extreme whale volume ($1.26M on Brewers) confirm institutional confidence. The Brewers are the better team with the better pitcher. Take the over 7.5 as the priority play before the number moves to 8; pair it with Brewers ML at -126 for a correlated run-line approach.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 13.9% favoring home with strong signal. Whale activity is extreme ($1.26M) with 83% consensus on home. Pinnacle fair value diverges from retail on spread (home +340 is +50% EV vs 35.1% fair). The aggregate sharp + whale signal clearly points to the Brewers side.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
+8.0 EV 60% 1.0u
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
+12.0 EV 60% 1.0u
TOTAL over 7.5
+27.6 EV 64% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Milwaukee Brewers -126
  • Gavin Williams (3.32 ERA, 9-3) dominates Sproat (5.70, 1-4); Bayesian edge +4.2% above market
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
  • Sharp edge 13.9% on home spread
  • Pinnacle fair value 35.1% vs retail +340 → +50% EV
  • Whale volume extreme with 83% conviction on Brewers cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian total edge +15.2pp — Markov projects 22.5 total, market is 7.5
  • Pitching mismatch (Williams 3.32 vs Sproat 5.70) should produce runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brewers ML at -150 gets a tiny +1.8% edge from $407K whale consensus (97% HOME), but missing pitcher data caps it to 0.5u LEAN
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