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MLB
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Marlins
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +37.5% EV
74% High Edge
74% High Edge
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -308
"NYY spread +39.7% EV (Bovada +155 vs Pinnacle fair) on 16.7% sharp divergence + RLM despite model even matchup"
EV / $100
+39.7
Win Prob
38%
Edge
-12.3%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
58%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.1% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +308.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
37.7%
ML
165 / -165

Player Props Engine

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Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -300 / 240 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -277 / 247 -
Value Line - -305 / 225 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (150) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-128) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-111)
Fair Value Fair Value -122 / 122 -265 / 265 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

C
Christopher Morel
(LF) 10-day IL — Morel was scratched from the lineup for Friday's game against the Rockies due to a left oblique strain, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Stowers
(LF) 10-day IL — Stowers (hamstring) was able to throw, hit and run during a workout Wednesday, and he had no issues afterward, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Esteury Ruiz
(LF) 10-day IL — The Marlins placed Ruiz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Sunday.
10-Day-IL
M
Maximo Acosta
(SS) 10-day IL — The Marlins announced Sunday that Acosta has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 left oblique strain and is expected to be out for 3-4 weeks, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — The Marlins reassigned White (oblique) to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) tossed one simulated inning of live batting practice Wednesday, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) hopes to throw off a mound Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that Volpe (shoulder) will take live batting practice Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to begin throwing bullpens before the end of March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (150)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Christopher Morel 10-Day-IL
Kyle Stowers 10-Day-IL
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees

+39.7 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 74% High Edge
"NYY spread +39.7% EV (Bovada +155 vs Pinnacle fair) on 16.7% sharp divergence + RLM despite model even matchup"
38% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 38%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -12.3%
Line Movement
Current NYY -308 / MIA +244 | Total 8.0
Movement N/A
ML favorite too juiced (-308 breakeven 75.5%, our prob 37.7%); MASSIVE +EV on NYY spread (39.7%) despite model discrepancy
Model: 52.0% win rate | n=248 — MLB 129-119 (52%); high edge tier calibrated 72% (18-7); avoid lean totals/player props (losing)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammering NYY spread (+39.7% EV at Bovada +155 vs Pinnacle fair) with RLM despite -308 ML juice. Omega model sees even matchup (12-12 expected) but market inefficiency on spread; recent H2H 1-4 but NYY ML cashed yesterday. Injuries everywhere (Cole/Rodon out NYY, 4 Marlins IL) but sharp action overrides; cap props at 60 given unvalidated rosters.
SHARP MONEY
16.7% sharp edge on spread + RLM detected; Bovada NYY spread +155 vs Pinnacle fair -121 = +39.7% EV
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -308
+39.7 EV 74% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Miami Marlins 162
  • Market -197 implies 66.4% but our 45% prob + omega ML +178 shows 21% edge on Marlins
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Miami Marlins 2.2
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 creates 2.2pt overlay on Marlins +2.2; Poisson projects 12-12 explosion
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 = 16pt massive overlay; Poisson expects 12-12=24 runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 12-12 explosion vs market 8.0 total + 2.2pt spread overlay = Marlins +2.2 / O8 +12.3 combined EV
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