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NHL
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings
Wings
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK +5.5% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning None
"Only number worth touching here: over 6.5 at +102 vs a 52.2% de-vigged fair = +5.5% EV, backed by the lone RLM/sharp divergence on the board."
Win Prob
73%
SPREAD Detroit Red Wings 1.5
56%
TOTAL over 6.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 2.0% divergence on total with moderate signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$55062 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (96% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 6 trades Kalshi: 264 trades Largest: $2926

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Red Wings

Tampa Bay Lightning

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -275 / 225 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -265 / 232 -
Value Line - -286 / 230 -
Sharp Action Best Line -1.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-102) ↓ - -
Value Line -1.5 (-107) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-117)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-116)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 104 / -104 -251 / 251 O/U -109 / 109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Red Wings

A
Albert Johansson
(D) out — out
Out
D
Dylan Larkin
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
M
Mason Appleton
(C) Injured Reserve — Head coach Todd McLellan said Friday that Appleton (undisclosed) is still 10 days to two weeks away from returning to game action, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Marco Kasper
(C) Injured Reserve — Head coach Todd McLellan said Friday that Kasper (upper body) is still 10 days to two weeks away from returning to game action, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports.
Injured Reserve
S
Simon Edvinsson
(D) Injured Reserve — Edvinsson (contract dispute) is on the Red Wings' injured, non-roster list, per the NHL media site Wednesday.
Injured Reserve

Tampa Bay Lightning

Z
Zemgus Girgensons
(C) out — Girgensons (lower body) won't play against Detroit on Tuesday, per Lightning reporter Gabby Shirley.
Out
E
Erik Cernak
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
Y
Yanni Gourde
(C) Injured Reserve — Gourde (hip) was placed on the injured non-roster list Monday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Detroit Red Wings @ Tampa Bay Lightning
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (-105)
Total Over 6.0
Key Injuries
Albert Johansson Out
Dylan Larkin Injured Reserve
Zemgus Girgensons Out
Erik Cernak Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning (-265) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T04:31:54.953740 UTC

None — posterior (72.6%) exactly matches the -265 breakeven; strictly a directional lean, not a bet, per the juiced-favorite filter (> -200 = automatic pass).

Total: over 6.5 (+102) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T13:01:01.215746 UTC

Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is 52.2% over vs a +102 retail price — the only quantified +EV cell on this board at +5.5% EV per $100.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T04:31:55.026581 UTC

Model projection, not market-verified: Kucherov leads Tampa with 18 points (14 goals, 8 assists) and faces a Detroit defense missing Simon Edvinsson (IR). No roster data available, so confidence capped at 60 per instructions.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Detroit Red Wings @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning 60% Lean
"Only number worth touching here: over 6.5 at +102 vs a 52.2% de-vigged fair = +5.5% EV, backed by the lone RLM/sharp divergence on the board."
73% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 73%
Book Implied 73%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Open unavailable
Current Spread TB -1.5 (home +100 / away -120), Total 6.5, ML TB -265 / DET +215
Movement No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Tampa -265 prices out at exactly our fused posterior (72.6%), so the moneyline is pure vig and the plusspread club sits in Detroit's favor at a thin +1.1pp. The only quantified edge is the total: Pinnacle fair de-vigs to 52.2% over while Kambi still posts +102, and that over lean carries the board's sole sharp confirmation — a 1.9% divergence with RLM on the total. Whale money ($55K STRONG tier, 97% home) supports Tampa but does not create edge on a -265 breakeven. NHL calibration is paused and 45.4% lifetime in this sport, so all positions are sharply capped.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Lightning None
60%
SPREAD Detroit Red Wings 1.5
+1.1 EV 56%
TOTAL over 6.5
+5.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Tampa Bay Lightning -265
  • None — posterior (72.6%) exactly matches the -265 breakeven; strictly a directional lean, not a bet, per the juiced-favorite filter (> -200 = automatic pass)
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Detroit Red Wings 1.5
  • calibrated gives Detroit +1.5 a 52.6% cover probability vs the market's 48.5% (+1.1pp) — the injury impact net (+9.2% home from Detroit being 25% decimated) is already priced into the puck line but not the plussmoneyline-adjacent cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 6.5
  • Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is 52.2% over vs a +102 retail price — the only quantified +EV cell on this board at +5.5% EV per $100
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Four Detroit IRs (Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson, Appleton) vs. two Tampa scratches = +12.4% home edge, but at -240 the juice eats it: model says 71.5% vs. 70.6% breakeven, +1.3 EV, PASS.
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