MLB
Minnesota Twins
Twins
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Player Props Engine
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Boston Red Sox
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Julian Merryweather
(RP)
day-to-day — The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Travis Adams
(RP)
out — Adams (right elbow inflammation) threw in the bullpen Friday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
Out
David Festa
(SP)
out — Festa (shoulder impingement) threw Thursday at 60 feet and Friday at 75 feet, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
Out
Walker Jenkins
(CF)
out — Jenkins (hamstring) is expected to be ready for the start of the Triple-A St. Paul Saints season, the Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Out
Pablo Lopez
(SP)
60-day IL — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Cory Lewis
(SP)
out — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Canterino
(SP)
out — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Out
Boston Red Sox
Patrick Sandoval
(SP)
out — Sandoval's early-spring progression in camp indicates it's possible he opens the season on the injured list, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
Out
Kutter Crawford
(SP)
out — Crawford (wrist) will throw three innings in a minor-league game in Fort Myers on Monday, MLB.com reports.
Out
Triston Casas
(1B)
out — Casas (knee) has been cleared to run the bases and slide, MLB.com reports.
Out
Danny Coulombe
(RP)
day-to-day — Coulombe was sent home Saturday with an illness, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. The nature of the illness is not known.
Day-To-Day
Brendan Rodgers
(2B)
out — Rodgers recently underwent right shoulder labral revision surgery, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Out
Vinny Nittoli
(RP)
out — Nittoli (elbow) will undergo an internal brace procedure and miss the entire 2026 season, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
Out
Romy Gonzalez
(1B)
60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Anthony Seigler
(2B)
day-to-day — The Red Sox acquired Seigler in a trade with the Brewers on Monday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Hobie Harris
(RP)
out — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Out
Tanner Houck
(SP)
60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox
67%
Sharp Lean
"Boston ML +3.2 EV: Bello leads IP while Twins lose 4 pitchers to injury (N=0 but injury priors strong)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.5%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines posted
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - pre-market
Early season (March 23)
Multiple injuries both sides
Fenway Park home advantage for Boston
Model estimates Boston ML -110 fair vs typical market -105 pricing
FULL ANALYSIS
Boston holds rotation edge with Bello's 17 IP vs Twins missing 4 arms (Merryweather/Jenkins/Lewis/Adams OUT). 10 total injuries project sub-8.5 runs despite Fenway. Model gives Sox 54% win prob on home prior + depth advantage. Early season CLV projection +2 cents ML.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
Boston Red Sox -110 (DDN_model fair)
- Boston deeper rotation with Bello (17 IP leader) vs Twins missing 4 pitchers including Merryweather OUT
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Boston Red Sox
- Twins bullpen depleted (Merryweather/Jenkins/Lewis OUT) vs Boston's Rafaela (8 RBI) heating up
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
65%
UNDER 8.5 8.5
- 10 combined injuries including 5 pitchers OUT suppress scoring 12-15% early season
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Boston ML +3.2 EV: Bello leads IP while Twins lose 4 pitchers to injury (N=0 but injury priors strong)
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