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Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.5
"Over 10.5 has +26.9% EV from Bayesian fusion, but degraded data and model disagreement cap confidence at Sharp Lean. Spread on Rockies +1.5 is a smaller edge play."
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
62%
Edge
-10.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
50%
TOTAL over 10.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$945128 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (95% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 140 trades Largest: $68000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.0
Win Prob
37.3%
ML
168 / -168

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -210 / 170 ↑ -
Value Line - -245 / 185 -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — The Rockies returned Doyle (oblique) from his rehab assignment Sunday, but he remains on the 10-day injured list.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — Quintana (elbow) is scheduled to play catch Monday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Seth Halvorsen
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Halvorsen on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 1, due to right shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
T
Tomoyuki Sugano
(SP) 15-day IL — Colorado placed Sugano (back) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 1.
15-Day-IL
B
Blas Castano
(RP) 15-day IL — Castano (pectoral) is expected to begin a throwing program next week, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jaden Hill
(RP) 15-day IL — Hill (shoulder) resumed playing catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Dollander underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow Monday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Dodgers

L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — Knack (intercostal) will make his third rehab start Sunday with Triple-A Oklahoma City.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez (oblique) took live batting practice against rehabbing teammate Edwin Diaz (elbow) on Sunday, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Treinen
(RP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers announced Thursday that Treinen (elbow) has resumed playing catch, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Sunday that Phillips (elbow) will be reinstated from the 60-day injured list ahead of Monday's series opener against the Rockies, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(LF) day-to-day — Edman was scratched from the lineup for Sunday's game against the Padres due to a right foot/ankle injury, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Day-To-Day
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) said he felt "really good" while facing hitters in live batting practice Sunday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts said Friday that Smith (neck) began hitting in the cages Thursday and has also begun throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has been cleared to begin a throwing program, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Key Injuries
Brenton Doyle 10-Day-IL
Jose Quintana 60-Day-IL
Landon Knack 60-Day-IL
Enrique Hernandez 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 55% Lean
"Over 10.5 has +26.9% EV from Bayesian fusion, but degraded data and model disagreement cap confidence at Sharp Lean. Spread on Rockies +1.5 is a smaller edge play."
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 72%
Edge -10.9%
Line Movement
Current DraftKings: Home -263 / Away +150, Spread -1.5, Total 10.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Data quality degraded (59%) – many missing signals Injury impact roughly equal on both sides Whale signals heavily on HOME (95% confidence, $945K volume) – contradicts model
Home moneyline has negative EV at current odds. Away moneyline also negative EV using calibrated. Spread and total offer positive EV.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion sees massive value on the over 10.5 (65.2% posterior vs 52.4% market, +26.9% EV), but data quality is degraded and model agreement is very low. The spread on Colorado +1.5 offers a smaller but positive edge (53.9% cover probability). Moneyline has negative EV on both sides. Whale volume is extreme on the Dodgers, but the model disagrees. This is a high-variance spot – the over is the strongest signal, but confidence is tempered by missing data and calibration concerns.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+3.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
-4.0 EV 50%
TOTAL over 10.5
+26.9 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Colorado Rockies 150
  • Bayesian posterior gives Rockies 38.4% win probability, but +150 odds imply 40% – negative EV of -$4 per $100
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows Rockies cover +1.5 at 53.9% vs market 50%, giving +3.2% EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 10.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows over 65.2% vs market 52.4%, yielding +26.9% EV – the strongest signal in the game
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Under 22.5 at Dodger Stadium: Monte Carlo projects 58.4% under rate, yielding +12.6% EV – the only clear edge in a data-poor matchup.
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