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MLB
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
Twins
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins -0.5
"Twins Bayesian/MC edge (58% win) vs whale-loaded Mets, +2.8 EV spread + 81% MC under 19.5"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Twins None
55%
TOTAL under 19.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$858422 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 67 trades Kalshi: 2041 trades Largest: $114719
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
25.0%
ML
301 / -301

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Minnesota Twins

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -181 / 149 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -173 / 155 -
Value Line - -186 / 148 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (250) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (125) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 133 / -133 -165 / 165 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

M
Mick Abel
(SP) 15-day IL — The right elbow injury that landed Abel on the 15-day injured list Monday is not considered to be overly serious, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kody Funderburk
(RP) out — Funderburk walked one and hit one batter while not allowing a hit or a run in two-thirds of an inning to earn the save in Wednesday's 8-6 win over the Tigers.
Out
R
Royce Lewis
(3B) 10-day IL — Lewis (knee) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A St. Paul on Saturday, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis Adams
(RP) 15-day IL — Adams (triceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Fort Myers on Wednesday, Theodore Tollefson of Zone Coverage reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Laweryson
(RP) 15-day IL — The Twins will place Laweryson on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right forearm strain, Audra Martin of FanDuel Sports Network North reports.
15-Day-IL
D
David Festa
(SP) 60-day IL — Festa (shoulder) is about two weeks from beginning to pitch off a mound, Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll told the Minnesota Star Tribune.
60-Day-IL
C
Cory Lewis
(SP) day-to-day — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Julian Merryweather
(RP) day-to-day — The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
P
Pablo Lopez
(SP) 60-day IL — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
M
Matt Canterino
(SP) out — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Out

New York Mets

J
Juan Soto
(RF) 10-day IL — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday that Soto (calf) remains on track to return during the team's upcoming homestand, which runs April 21-30, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(2B) 10-day IL — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(LF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (250)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Mick Abel 15-Day-IL
Kody Funderburk Out
Juan Soto 10-Day-IL
Jorge Polanco 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Twins 57% Lean Calibrated
"Twins Bayesian/MC edge (58% win) vs whale-loaded Mets, +2.8 EV spread + 81% MC under 19.5"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread Minnesota Twins -0.5 (-110) / New York Mets +0.5 (-110), Total 19.5 (-110), ML Minnesota Twins -125 / New York Mets +105
Movement N/A
+EV on Twins at model -125 (breakeven 55.6%, our 58% exceeds by 2.4%; marginal after whale adjustment)
Model: 51.4% win rate | n=580 — MLB solid overall but spreads/moneylines profitable in LEAN tier; vs Mets 13-25L poor
FULL ANALYSIS
Fused Bayesian (62.9% Twins) and MC (50.7% away win/cover) show quant edge to Twins despite Omega -301 juice forcing spread preference. Extreme $632k whales on Mets (88% conf) contradict, capping at LEAN. MC 80.9% under 24 total (proj 19.6 runs) offers biggest raw EV but totals 48.7% historical WR limits sizing. Equal -8.7% injury hits both sides, no pitchers data reduces all conf.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme institutional whale volume $632k (15 wallets, 88% on Mets) contradicts models
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota Twins -0.5
+2.8 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Twins None
+1.8 EV 55%
TOTAL under 19.5
+12.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Minnesota Twins -125
  • Fused model consensus 58% Twins win prob vs -125 breakeven 55.6%
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Minnesota Twins -0.5
  • MC 50.7% Twins cover +0.0 vs 52.4% breakeven, Bayesian edge favors away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 60%
UNDER 19.5
  • MC 80.9% under 24.0 total (projected 19.6 runs) vs 52.4% breakeven
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Twins Bayesian/MC edge (58% win) vs whale-loaded Mets, +2.8 EV spread + 81% MC under 19.5
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