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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
2 - 3
Final
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -163
"BOS spread +340 (67.5% EV) sharp 16.8% edge vs fair 38% + MC 45.9% cover despite MIL 8-2"
EV / $100
+67.5
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
60%
TOTAL over 6.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +18.0
Win Prob
26.6%
ML
276 / -276

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Milwaukee Brewers

Boston Red Sox

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brice Turang
(2B) day-to-day — Turang (ankle) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game in Boston.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn will have a follow-up appointment with his hand surgeon Thursday and hopes to be cleared at that time to progress to the next step of his rehab, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio will undergo follow-up imaging on his fractured left wrist Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig allowed a hit and struck out one over a scoreless inning to earn the save in Thursday's 5-2 win over the Angels.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) will report to the Brewers' spring training complex in Arizona later this week to resume throwing live batting practice, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Craig Yoho
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Yoho (calf) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Eduardo Garcia
(OF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
T
Thomas Pannone
(RP) day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out

Boston Red Sox

J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Wednesday that Oviedo will be shut down for six week after being diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Slaten on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to a right oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said that Casas (knee) is headed for imaging on his ribs after he tried to swing a bat Monday and "it didn't go well," Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford (wrist) is on track to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester this weekend, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (elbow) did not make his scheduled rehab start for Double-A Portland on Sunday, because the game was postponed due to weather, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports. The left-hander will now start Wednesday for Triple-A Worcester.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Seigler
(2B) 10-day IL — Boston placed Seigler on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to left knee patellar tendinopathy.
10-Day-IL
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
2
-
Boston Red Sox
Sox
3
Boston Red Sox -163
65% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox

+67.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 65% Sharp Lean
"BOS spread +340 (67.5% EV) sharp 16.8% edge vs fair 38% + MC 45.9% cover despite MIL 8-2"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current BOS -163 / MIL +135 | Total 6.0
Movement No movement data
MIL +135 offers value vs our 46% (breakeven 42.6%) but sharp + MC favor even game; heavy juice kills ML edge
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — N=322 MLB (53.4%); vs BOS 9-10, vs MIL 12-8; recent H2H 0-3 all BOS picks lost
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project 12-12 tie (24 total) vs market 6 total + BOS -163 ML despite MIL 8-2/3-1 road; sharp 16.8% spread edge BOS + Bovada +340 EV (fair 38%) with MC 45.9% home cover. BOS 5 key IL (Crawford/Sandoval/Casas) but Fenway + sharp divergence. Yesterday's 0-3 H2H vs BOS calibrates confidence down.
SHARP MONEY
16.8% spread divergence sharp on BOS + Bovada +340 EV (67.5%) vs fair 38% home cover
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox -163
+67.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 6.0
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Boston Red Sox -259
  • Omega win prob 72.2% matches -259 breakeven exactly, but ELO 71.5% home win prob supports no edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Boston Red Sox 0.0
  • ELO projects Red Sox -5.4 spread vs Poisson even matchup, creating mild home favorite value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Model total 24.0 unusually high for MLB (avg ~8.5), likely inflated Poisson projection without park/weather data
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Red Sox 0.0 spread +0.8 EV from ELO -5.4 vs Poisson even, but -259 ML no edge and 24 total inflated
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