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MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +35.8% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros 1.5
"Astros +1.5 crushes overjuiced LAD -1.5 (-219), omega even/19 total vs mkt (+25 EV spread, +24 EV over)"
EV / $100
+25.4
Win Prob
66%
Edge
+16.3%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
66%
TOTAL over 9.0
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.4% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1502858 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 341 trades Kalshi: 1068 trades Largest: $164029
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +219.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
29.0%
ML
245 / -245

Player Props Engine

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 168 / -206 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 173 / -195 -
Value Line - 165 / -210 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-210) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (107) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-119)
De-Vigged Fair Value 114 / -114 185 / -185 O/U -111 / 111
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) will kick of a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mookie Betts
(SS) 10-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Monday that Betts (oblique) is on track to face live pitching in a simulated game Thursday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Monday that Edman has been backed off his rehab a bit after feeling residual soreness in his surgically repaired right ankle, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) joined the Dodgers in Houston on Monday and is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list during their series against the Astros, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Snell (shoulder) completed four innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on two hits and one walk while striking out four batters.
15-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, Triple-A Oklahoma City broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 15-day IL — Diaz said Monday that he's feeling "really good" following right elbow surgery and expressed confidence that he will be back to full strength in the second half of the season, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 15-day IL — Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL

Houston Astros

C
Carlos Correa
(SS) out — Correa was scratched from the lineup ahead of Tuesday's game against the Dodgers due to a left ankle injury, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
Out
Y
Yainer Diaz
(C) 10-day IL — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Lucas Spence
(OF) day-to-day — Spence (neck) will start in left field and bat seventh in Monday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Day-To-Day
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — The Astros have selected Janek with the 28th overall pick in the 2024 First-Year Player Draft.
Day-To-Day
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Pena (hamstring) could begin a rehab assignment this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) could throw a bullpen session as soon as this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) will make his next rehab appearance Tuesday or Wednesday with Triple-A Sugar Land, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-210)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Enrique Hernandez 60-Day-IL
Mookie Betts 10-Day-IL
Carlos Correa Out
Yainer Diaz 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

+25.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 65% Sharp Lean
"Astros +1.5 crushes overjuiced LAD -1.5 (-219), omega even/19 total vs mkt (+25 EV spread, +24 EV over)"
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +16.3%
Line Movement
Current ML: HOU +179 / LAD -219; Spread: LAD -219 (run line -1.5); Total: 9.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
Slight +2.2pp edge vs de-vigged market prior on Dodgers ML (payout-adjusted ~1% EV); massive +24.5 EV on over 9
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project even matchup (0 spread, 19.3 total) vs DK's -219 Dodgers run line and 9 total—massive arb on Astros +1.5 (66% cover) and over (65% prob). Bayesian fuses to +2pp Dodgers ML edge but juice kills ROI; sharps/preds away but extreme whale vol home + injury nets cap conviction. Degraded data (no pitchers) demands caution.
SHARP MONEY
19.4% sharp edge + RLM on spread favoring Dodgers side; conflicts with whale action on home
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros 1.5
+25.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
+1.0 EV 66% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.5 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Los Angeles Dodgers -219
  • Bayesian posterior 66.3% away win vs de-vigged market 64.2% (+2.2pp); MC 48.5% away win undervalued in vigged pricing
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Houston Astros 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market Dodgers -1.5 -219 (huge 219pt edge); MC margin -0.3 (std 4.6) implies ~66% Astros +1.5 cover prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.3 total, omega 22.5 crushes low line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers -0.5 model spread +23 EV (64% posterior) vs juiced ML; MC 77% under 22.5 despite whale steam home
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