MLS
Philadelphia Union
Union
New England Revolution
Revolution
Whale Activity Detected
$697906 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Kalshi: 1137 trades
Largest: $39200
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
45.0%
ML
122 / -122
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAPhiladelphia Union
New England Revolution
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
4.2
Moneyline
NEW -184
/
PHI 184
Win Probability
65%
-
35%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Union @ New England Revolution
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New England Revolution
52%
Lean
"Market 2.5 total vs model 7.5 (+14.9% over edge); NER +160 ML +8.5pp w/ extreme whale steam"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
47%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-3.1%
Line Movement
Open
No open line provided
Current
PHI -0.5 (+145 PHI / -205 NER), ML NER +160 / PHI -155, Total 2.5
Movement
No significant movement
+EV on NER ML at +160 (breakeven 38.5%, our 46.9%) and massive on over 2.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Market total 2.5 vs Omega 7.5/Dixon-Coles 6.4 exposes +14.9pp over edge in high-proj 3.8-3.8 game. NER home ML +8.5pp value at +160 backed by EXTREME $474k whales despite Kalshi away. Spread even per Omega/MC +0.2 home margin, but juice kills EV; data degraded caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
EXTREME whale volume $474k all-in on home (institutional), overrides Kalshi away lean
MONEYLINE PICK
○
47%
New England Revolution 160
- Bayesian posterior 46.9% vs market 38.5% (+8.5pp edge), whale EXTREME $474k home
SPREAD PICK
○
52%
New England Revolution 0.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market PHI -0.5 (0.5pt edge to home) + MC home margin +0.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
62%
OVER 2.5
- Over posterior 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp); Omega total 7.5, expected 3.8-3.8, Dixon-Coles 6.4 total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Market 2.5 total vs model 7.5 (+14.9% over edge); NER +160 ML +8.5pp w/ extreme whale steam
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