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NCAA Women's Basketball
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Irish
99 - 75
Final
Villanova Wildcats
Wildcats
Villanova Wildcats
Full Game Analysis
NCAA Women's Basketball
Ω DDN SI PICK
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5
"Skip the -425 ML tax (needs 80.9%, we say 79%) and buy Notre Dame -7.5 at -110 instead — same edge, roughly +$2.8/100 vs -$7.4/100 on the juice."
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
79%
Edge
-1.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Notre Dame Fighting Irish None
50%
TOTAL under 142.5
57%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Villanova Wildcats

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Irish
99
-
Villanova Wildcats
Wildcats
75
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5
61% conf
W

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5 (-110) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T05:39:44.915536 UTC

Notre Dame at -425 ML prices the fair spread near -8.5 to -9; buying -7.5 at even money buys the same edge without the 80.9% breakeven tax.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Villanova Wildcats

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 61% Lean
"Skip the -425 ML tax (needs 80.9%, we say 79%) and buy Notre Dame -7.5 at -110 instead — same edge, roughly +$2.8/100 vs -$7.4/100 on the juice."
79% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 79%
Book Implied 81%
Edge -1.9%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Villanova +7.5 (-110/-110), Total: 142.5, ML: Villanova +330 / Notre Dame -425
Movement No movement data available
Neutral site (Rome) — home/away designation is nominal Season opener for both teams — 0-0 records, no form data, N<20 applies to everything
Notre Dame -425 requires an 80.9% breakeven; our 79% estimate makes the ML negative EV (-$7.40 per $100). The spread at -7.5/-110 carries better structure: implied 52.4% vs our ~55% cover estimate, roughly +$4.90 per $100, but without model or odds-movement data the edge is thin. No odds-movement or sharp data exists for this exhibition-tier listing, so treat all numbers as low-confidence.
FULL ANALYSIS
Notre Dame is a legit -8.5 quality team priced at -425, which is a vig trap — the 80.9% breakeven exceeds our 79% fair estimate. The -7.5 spread at even money is the right instrument, buying the same edge for $2.80 per $100 instead of losing $7.40. Total 142.5 leans under on open-rust priors alone; smallest sizing. This is a display-tier call, not a tracked edge.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5
+2.8 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Notre Dame Fighting Irish None
-7.4 EV 50%
TOTAL under 142.5
+2.1 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -425
  • No edge: -425 requires 80.9% to breakeven and our independent estimate is 79% — the vig on a heavy ML favorite is -EV by design (Benter rule: never pay the favorite tax)
SPREAD PICK
○ 61%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5
  • Notre Dame at -425 ML prices the fair spread near -8.5 to -9; buying -7.5 at even money buys the same edge without the 80.9% breakeven tax
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 142.5
  • Season openers in neutral-site exhibitions historically run under due to rust and sloppy early offense; 142.5 is a low ceiling that early-season pace rarely clears by a meaningful margin
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Notre Dame -7.5 at -110 in a neutral-site Rome opener: 71.5% fair probability beats the 70.5% breakeven while the -425 ML (81% BE) is a hard pass.
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