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Serie A
AS Roma
AS Roma
Roma
Parma
Parma
Parma
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
70% Strong
70% Strong
SPREAD
AS Roma AS Roma -0.5
"Roma -195 ML +25 EV: 82.6% posterior >> 66% vigged breakeven despite whale contrarian $34k on Parma"
EV / $100
+22.0
Win Prob
83%
Edge
+32.6%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE AS Roma None
73%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$42362 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 29 trades Largest: $4995

Player Props Engine

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AS Roma

Parma

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-2.4
Moneyline
PAR 141 / AS -141
Win Probability
42% - 58%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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AS Roma @ Parma
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

AS Roma @ Parma

+22.0 EV
per $100 wagered
AS Roma 70% Strong
"Roma -195 ML +25 EV: 82.6% posterior >> 66% vigged breakeven despite whale contrarian $34k on Parma"
83% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 83%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +32.6%
Line Movement
Current Roma -0.5 (-210) / Parma +0.5 (+150) | O/U 2.5 (-110) | ML Parma +475 / Roma -195
Movement No significant movement detected
+25 EV on Roma ML as 82.6% posterior >> 66.1% vigged implied; spread EV +22 vs -210
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior pegs Roma at 82.6% win prob matching devigged market but crushing vigged implieds (-195 ML 66.1% breakeven, +25 EV). Malen (0.73 G/M) exploits Parma's weak attack (Pellegrino 0.24 G/M); whales on Parma ($34k strong vol) but 51% conviction weak signal. Poor data (29% quality) and zero calibration cap at high edge, favor ML over juiced spread.
SHARP MONEY
Strong whale volume $34k on Parma ML (3 profitable wallets), but only 51% confidence limits impact
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD AS Roma -0.5
+22.0 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE AS Roma None
+25.0 EV 73% 2.0u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 73%
AS Roma -195
  • 82.6% posterior crushes 66.1% breakeven (exceeds by 16.5%) for +25 EV per $100 risked
SPREAD PICK
● 70%
AS Roma -0.5
  • 82.6% Roma win prob (posterior) vs 67.7% implied at -210 yields +22 EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Serie A avg 2.6 goals/game; Roma control game as 83% fav limits Parma scoring (Pellegrino 0.24 G/M)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Roma -195 ML +25 EV: 82.6% posterior >> 66% vigged breakeven despite whale contrarian $34k on Parma
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