Home › MLB › San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +41.5% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
"Dodgers ML +1.2pp Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales + monster 65% over 9.5 (MC 19.5 total proj, +24 EV)"
EV / $100
+14.8
Win Prob
66%
Edge
+15.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
64%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$561975 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 235 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $46695
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +181.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
45.5%
ML
120 / -120

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -184 / 152 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -177 / 158 -
Value Line - -186 / 148 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (215) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (115) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 123 / -123 -168 / 168 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — Susac (elbow) went 2-for-4 in Triple-A Sacramento's 2-1 loss to Reno on Friday.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Webb
(SP) 15-day IL — The Giants placed Webb on the 15-day injured list Saturday due to right knee bursitis, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader (hamstring) went 1-for-3 in Triple-A Sacramento's 4-0 loss to Reno on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Erik Miller
(RP) 15-day IL — Miller (back) will throw a bullpen session Thursday before beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) is throwing live batting practice Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Dodgers

B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 15-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) has been throwing at the Dodgers' complex in Arizona, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — no
60-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Saturday that he expects Stewart (foot) will be on the 15-day injured list for approximately three weeks, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mookie Betts
(SS) 10-day IL — Betts (oblique) will travel back to Los Angeles on Sunday and could be activated from the 10-day injured list Monday ahead of the Dodgers' four-game home series against the Giants, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Edman (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 15-day IL — no
15-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, Triple-A Oklahoma City broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) will kick of a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (215)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Daniel Susac 10-Day-IL
Logan Webb 15-Day-IL
Ben Casparius 15-Day-IL
Edwin Diaz 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+14.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 62% Lean
"Dodgers ML +1.2pp Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales + monster 65% over 9.5 (MC 19.5 total proj, +24 EV)"
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.6%
Line Movement
Current LAD -1.5 -181 / SF +1.5 +149 | ML LAD -181 / SF +149 | Total 9.5
Movement No significant movement
Slight +EV on home ML; massive +24.5 EV on over from 65.2% posterior vs 50% implied
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior gives slim 65.6% to Dodgers ML vs -181 juice (breakeven 64.4%) confirmed by extreme $562K whale volume on home and 14.8% sharp spread edge. Total 9.5 is wildly undervalued—MC projects 19.5, over posterior 65.2% for +24 EV despite totals' poor historical 48.7% WR. MC slight away lean (47.9%) and very low model agreement cap conf at 60-64; equal -6.9% injuries neutral.
SHARP MONEY
14.8% sharp edge on home spread (strong signal) + moderate 1% ML away offset by +41.5% +EV home spread divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+14.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
+1.9 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Los Angeles Dodgers -181
  • Bayesian posterior 65.6% fuses market/models vs 64.4% implied (edge +1.2pp)
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
  • Strong sharp divergence 14.8% on home spread cover + Pinnacle fair 44.9% vs implied 64.4%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp edge); MC proj 19.5 total, omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers ML +1.2pp Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales + monster 65% over 9.5 (MC 19.5 total proj, +24 EV)
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE