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Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
10 - 36
Final
Buffalo Bills
Bills
Buffalo Bills
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK LATE TO MARKET
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -3.0
"Ravens down their entire QB room (Jackson/Huntley/Fagnano all OUT) but the market still says only -3 — OMEGA line is -5.5, +$6.6 EV on Bills -3 at -115."
EV / $100
+6.6
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+3.5%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Buffalo Bills None
65%
TOTAL over 54.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-5.5
Edge: -2.5
Total
66.5
Edge: +12.0
Win Prob
70.8%
ML
-242 / 242
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -3.0 — 14.8% of NFL games land on 3. Buying the half point is worth ~7.4% win probability. Pay up to -125 for the buy. OMEGA line (-5.5) disagrees by 2.5 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -175 / 150 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -164 / 147 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (-122) - -
Market Consensus -3.0 (-108) ↓ - -
Value Line -25.5 (-250) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 54.5 (-105)
Market Consensus - - Over 55.5 (-103)
Value Line - - Over 46.5 (-108)
De-Vigged Fair Value -103 / 103 -156 / 156 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Ravens

Z
Zay Flowers
(WR) active — Flowers failed to bring in any of his five targets in the Ravens' 36-10 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Active
T
Tyler Huntley
(QB) questionable — Huntley sustained what could be a turf-toe injury during Sunday's 36-10 loss at Buffalo, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Questionable
J
Joe Fagnano
(QB) out — Fagnano (undisclosed) said that he hopes to be ready for Thursday's game against the Jaguars, but acknowledged he's not 100 percent following Sunday's loss to the Bills, Jonas Shafferof the Baltimore Banner reports.
Out
D
Derrick Henry
(RB) active — Henry rushed 11 times for 53 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for seven yards in the Ravens' 36-10 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Active
L
Lamar Jackson
(QB) out — Jackson is slated to have surgery to address his right thumb injury and will be placed on injured reserve, per coach Jesse Minter, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Out
N
Nate Wiggins
(CB) questionable — Wiggins (stinger) is being evaluated for a possible concussion and is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Bills.
Questionable
T
T.J. Tampa
(CB) active — Tampa (knee) is active for Sunday's game versus Buffalo.
Active
A
Aeneas Peebles
(DT) out — inactive
Out
C
Chandler Rivers
(CB) out — inactive
Out
E
Elijah Sarratt
(WR) out — inactive
Out
J
Jaylinn Hawkins
(S) out — inactive
Out
O
Olaivavega Ioane
(G) out — inactive
Out
E
Emery Jones Jr.
(OT) out — inactive
Out
A
Adam Randall
(RB) Injured Reserve — Randall (neck) wasn't activated from injured reserve Saturday and won't be available for Sunday's game against the Bills, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports.
Injured Reserve
K
Kyle Hamilton
(S) active — Hamilton (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Bills.
Active
J
John Simpson
(G) active
Active
B
Broderick Washington Jr.
(DT) active — Washington (ankle) logged a full practice Thursday.
Active
R
Ronnie Stanley
(OT) active — Stanley (toe) practiced in full Thursday.
Active
R
Roquan Smith
(LB) active — Smith (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice.
Active
J
John Jenkins
(DT) active
Active
J
Josh Cuevas
(TE) active — Cuevas caught two of three targets for 35 yards during the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday.
Active
J
Ja'Kobi Lane
(WR) active — Lane caught three of five targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals.
Active
J
Justice Hill
(RB) active — Hill took three carries for seven yards and caught three of four targets for 26 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss versus the Bengals.
Active
R
Rashod Bateman
(WR) active — Bateman caught two of four targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals.
Active
A
Andrew Vorhees
(G) active
Active

Buffalo Bills

C
C.J. Gardner-Johnson
(S) Suspension — reserve-sus
Suspension
J
James Cook III
(RB) active — Cook rushed 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown while catching two of three targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 36-10 win over the Ravens.
Active
J
Josh Allen
(QB) active — Allen completed 21 of 34 passes for 289 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 36-10 win over the Ravens. He added 30 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown on seven rushing attempts.
Active
D
DJ Moore
(WR) questionable — Moore indicated following Sunday's 36-10 win over the Ravens that he's okay in the wake of his late-game exit due to a knee issue, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Questionable
J
Joshua Palmer
(WR) questionable — Palmer (hamstring) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Questionable
D
Dee Alford
(CB) out — Alford (ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Out
G
Greg Gaines
(DT) out — Gaines (calf) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Out
S
Spencer Brown
(OT) out — Brown (back) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Out
A
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
(G) out — inactive
Out
J
Jalon Kilgore
(S) out — inactive
Out
S
Skyler Bell
(WR) out — inactive
Out
M
Mike Danna
(DE) out — inactive
Out
T
TJ Parker
(LB) active
Active
D
Dalton Kincaid
(TE) active — Kincaid (chest) is active for Sunday's game against the Ravens, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Active
T
Te'Cory Couch
(CB) active — The Bills signed Couch (hamstring) off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Active
R
Ray Davis
(RB) active — Davis (illness) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Active
B
Bradley Chubb
(LB) active
Active
J
Joe Andreessen
(LB) active
Active
E
Ed Oliver
(DT) active — Oliver (knee) was a full participant at the Bills' practice Thursday.
Active
T
T.J. Sanders
(DT) active
Active
T
Tyrell Shavers
(WR) out — The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Out
S
Sam Franklin Jr.
(S) active — The NFL reduced Franklin's discipline from a one-game suspension to a fine of $14,926, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Active
D
Dorian Williams
(LB) active — Williams logged five tackles (three solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Active
D
Davison Igbinosun
(CB) active — Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard praised Igbinosun's play earlier this week and plans to keep giving the rookie a good amount of playing time, Alec White of the Bills' official site reports. Said Leonard, "I think what he's done the last couple weeks, he's definitely earned a high majority of the snaps at the corner position. I know what I'm getting, play in and play out."
Active
D
Dawson Knox
(TE) active — Knox caught his only target for no gain during Sunday's 33-30 win at Las Vegas.
Active
Box Score
FINAL
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
10
-
Buffalo Bills
Bills
36
Buffalo Bills -3.0
63% conf
W

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Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

+6.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Buffalo Bills 63% Sharp Lean
"Ravens down their entire QB room (Jackson/Huntley/Fagnano all OUT) but the market still says only -3 — OMEGA line is -5.5, +$6.6 EV on Bills -3 at -115."
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +3.5%
Line Movement
Current Spread -3.0 (Home -115 / Away -105), Total 54.5, ML Home -162 / Away +136
Movement No movement data supplied
Ravens QB cascade: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Joe Fagnano all OUT Bills missing Spencer Brown (OL) and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (suspension) Data-sample caveat: home/away splits are small (2-1, 3-1)
Bills -3 at -115: cover prob 57% vs 53.5% implied -> +$6.6 per $100; half-point buy off key number 3 worth ~7.4% win probability per key_number_alert
FULL ANALYSIS
Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley and Joe Fagnano are all OUT, yet the market sits at Bills -3 — right on the 14.8%-of-games key number. OMEGA's Poisson+ELO line is -5.5 (2.5 pts of edge), and buying the half point is worth ~7.4% win probability at current juice. The model total (66.5) screams 12 points above the 54.5 market, but with a -1329 under price and no validated totals edge, that gap is flagged as model instability, not free money.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Buffalo Bills -3.0
+6.6 EV 63% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Buffalo Bills None
+3.4 EV 65% 0.5u
TOTAL over 54.5
+50.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Buffalo Bills -162
  • Attributed win prob 65% vs 61.8% breakeven at -162, backed by a 5-1 Bills record and a Ravens QB room reduced to emergency options
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Buffalo Bills -3.0
  • OMEGA line vs market -3.0 with Baltimore's top three QBs (Jackson, Huntley, Fagnano) all ruled OUT, yet the market still prices at the key number 3
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 54.5
  • OMEGA scoring model+team strength total is 66.5 (decomposed ratings 67.9, EWMA home form 33.0) vs market 54.5 — a 12-point model-market gap, and the binding over price pays +1150
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bills -3 at a cheaper number than OMEGA's -5.5 model line, with Lamar Jackson questionable as the cap-limited risk — +5.1 EV per $100 on the spread
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