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San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.1% EV EARLY VALUE
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
"Over 9.0 runs shows +26.9% EV — the clear best edge in a low-confidence matchup."
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
55%
TOTAL over 9.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$850028 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 259 trades Kalshi: 17 trades Largest: $52000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
36.7%
ML
172 / -172

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -136 / 114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 120 -
Value Line - -265 / 180 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (285) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (152) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 162 / -162 -125 / 125 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

K
Keaton Winn
(RP) 15-day IL — Winn (elbow) completed a 25-pitch bullpen Monday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 60-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) threw 30 pitches during a bullpen session Monday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader (foot) will start his hitting and throwing progressions later this week, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Willy Adames
(SS) day-to-day — Adames (back) is not in the Giants' starting lineup against the Diamondbacks on Monday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — The Giants placed Susac on the 10-day injured list Friday with a lower-back strain, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) struck out two over a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on Friday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) is expected to be re-evaluated during the first or second week of July, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Soroka
(SP) 15-day IL — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
James McCann
(C) 10-day IL — McCann (quadriceps) will start playing games in the Arizona Complex League next week, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryne Nelson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Lawlar on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right hamstring strain.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Juan Centeno
(C) Developmental List — The Diamondbacks re-assigned Centeno to minor-league camp Friday.
developmental list
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (285)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Keaton Winn 15-Day-IL
Joel Peguero 60-Day-IL
Corbin Burnes 60-Day-IL
Michael Soroka 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+7.47 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 57% Lean
"Over 9.0 runs shows +26.9% EV — the clear best edge in a low-confidence matchup."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current Home -138 / Away +116, Spread -2.2, Total 9.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Strong edge on over 9.0 total based on calibrated (65.2% vs 50% market implied).
FULL ANALYSIS
The models see the best value on the over 9.0 runs total, with a strong 65.2% posterior probability. The away moneyline has only a marginal edge, while the spread pick on Arizona is conflicted by sharp money favoring home. Given data quality issues and conflicting signals, the over total is the most confident play.
SHARP MONEY
Model favors away on moneyline and spread, sharp moneyline edge supports away (+2.3%), but spread sharp edge strongly favors home (+13.3%). Total has no clear sharp signal.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
+7.5 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+1.5 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+26.9 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Arizona Diamondbacks 116
  • Model edge is marginal (+0.7pp) but sharp moneyline signals align with away (+2.3% edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
  • Model posterior shows 56.3% cover for away vs market 50% fair line, but sharp spread money favors home, reducing confidence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over probability vs 50% market, supported by recent 30-day over total profitability in Strong tier (86.7% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge on over 8.5 — model sees 65% over probability in a game with no clear pitching advantage.
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