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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 1.5
"MC 21 runs vs 8.0 total (+15.2pp over posterior); Nats +1.5 value off omega 0.0 spread"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
58%
TOTAL over 8.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$118504 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 86 trades Largest: $5708
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
34.4%
ML
191 / -191

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

Washington Nationals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 133 / -159 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 137 / -152 -
Value Line - 133 / -167 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-300) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-125) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value -118 / 118 145 / -145 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) out — Woodruff was removed from Thursday's game against the Diamondbacks with an apparent injury, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Zerpa on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with left forearm tightness, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is scheduled to throw about four innings and 60 pitches in the next start of his rehab assignment Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is ramping up his hitting and running work and still has an estimated return of mid-to-late May, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn (hand) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio (hand) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day

Washington Nationals

C
Clayton Beeter
(RP) 15-day IL — Beeter (forearm) had an MRI come back clean and was cleared to resume throwing Tuesday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyler Baum
(DH) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — Gray (elbow) remains shut down from throwing and will undergo additional testing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cole Henry
(RP) 15-day IL — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Ken Waldichuk
(RP) 60-day IL — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-300)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Brandon Woodruff Out
Angel Zerpa 15-Day-IL
Clayton Beeter 15-Day-IL
Tyler Baum Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 60% Lean
"MC 21 runs vs 8.0 total (+15.2pp over posterior); Nats +1.5 value off omega 0.0 spread"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.1%
Line Movement
Current Brewers -1.5 -163 | Nationals +1.5 +143 | ML Brewers -163 / Nationals +135 | Total 8.0 -110
Movement No significant line movement detected
net_injury_away_advantage
Slight devigged edge on Brewers ML but vigged negative EV at -163; value requires 62%+
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project 21 runs (10.3-10.7) vs market 8.0 for +15pp over edge despite no pitchers/weather; spread value on Nats +1.5 as omega even vs -163 juice, Pinnacle fair 54% home cover. Sharp away but extreme whale $117k home + injury net away adv conflicted signals cap conf. Degraded data lowers all; totals historic weak but quant blowout dominates.
SHARP MONEY
19.4% sharp edge on spread away + strong signal; Pinnacle fair away cover 45.9% vs retail heavy juice
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 1.5
+12.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
-1.5 EV 58%
TOTAL over 8.0
+15.2 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Washington Nationals 135
  • Whale extreme volume $117k 75% on home + prediction mkt 40.5% home vs books
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Washington Nationals 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.5 -163 + MC home cover +1.5 ~59%; Pinnacle fair 54.1% home cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over +15.2pp edge; MC projects 21 runs (10.3-10.7) vs market 8
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
MC 21 runs vs 8.0 total (+15.2pp over posterior); Nats +1.5 value off omega 0.0 spread
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