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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.3% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 1.5
"ATL +123 50.5% posterior vs 44.8% implied (+12.6EV) + whale institutional home, MC 20 runs torches o8"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+0.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
51%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$635550 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (71% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 202 trades Kalshi: 28 trades Largest: $23310
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
41.4%
ML
141 / -141

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

Atlanta Braves

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 123 / -147 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 128 / -141 -
Value Line - 123 / -152 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-320) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-133) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value -126 / 126 135 / -135 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

J
Javier Baez
(SS) day-to-day — Baez isn't in the starting lineup Sunday versus Cincinnati.
Day-To-Day
C
Casey Mize
(SP) day-to-day — Mize was removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta with an apparent injury, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Detroit moved Seabold to the 15-day IL on Sunday due to left ankle inflammation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager A.J. Hinch said Verlander's (hip) bullpen session Wednesday was "encouraging," Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach McKinstry
(2B) 10-day IL — McKinstry (hip) has resumed light baseball activities, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (groin) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out

Atlanta Braves

S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Schwellenbach (elbow) has yet to begin a throwing program and will not make his season debut until after the All-Star break, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Raisel Iglesias
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Iglesias (shoulder) has resumed throwing, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Strider (oblique) will be activated from the 15-day injured list to make his season debut this weekend in Colorado, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) will remain on a rehab assignment with High-A Rome this week, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Dylan Lee
(RP) Paternity — Atlanta placed Lee on the paternity list Tuesday.
Paternity
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Kim (finger) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Columbus this week, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Dylan Dodd
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta will place Dodd on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a back strain, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-320)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Javier Baez Day-To-Day
Casey Mize Day-To-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach 60-Day-IL
Hurston Waldrep 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 60% Lean
"ATL +123 50.5% posterior vs 44.8% implied (+12.6EV) + whale institutional home, MC 20 runs torches o8"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.5%
Line Movement
Current ML: DET -149 / ATL +123 | Spread: DET -1.5 -149 | Total: 8.0
Movement No significant movement
+12.6 EV on ATL ML at +123; massive +EV on total over
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fuses to 50.5% ATL win vs 44.8% implied (+5.7pp, +12.6EV at +123) with whale extreme $595k home; MC 10.1-9.9 total crushes 8.0 (65% over posterior). Injuries net +2.8% home but sharps split (DET ML, ATL spread). Omega even spread confirms ATL +1.5 value.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 1.5
+4.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+12.6 EV 51% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+14.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 51%
Atlanta Braves 123
  • Bayesian posterior 50.5% vs market 44.8% (+5.7pp edge); whale extreme volume on home
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Atlanta Braves 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market DET -1.5; MC margin +0.2 home covers +1.5 in 62% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC proj 20 runs (10.1-9.9)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Braves +110 ML +5.2 EV on $395k extreme whales + injury edge vs Tigers, model 51% home win
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