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NBA
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets
Nets
98 - 90
Final
Indiana Pacers
Pacers
Indiana Pacers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK LATE TO MARKET
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers -3.5
"Pacers -3.5 at -105 vs the 0-5 Nets: Omega projects -12, NegBin projects 75.2% win, and even after haircutting the 8.5-point gap the market is over-paying for Brooklyn's competitiveness"
EV / $100
+11.7
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Indiana Pacers None
55%
TOTAL over 230.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-12.0
Edge: -8.5
Total
244.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
71.1%
ML
-246 / 246

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Brooklyn Nets

Indiana Pacers

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -160 / 135 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -152 / 137 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (-115) - -
Market Consensus -3.5 (100) ↓ - -
Value Line 6.5 (-118) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 229.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 229.0 (-109)
Value Line - - Over 192.5 (-148)
De-Vigged Fair Value 105 / -105 -145 / 145 O/U -103 / 103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Brooklyn Nets

M
Mikel Brown Jr.
(G) out — Brown (rest) is out for Sunday's game in Indiana.
Out
E
Egor Demin
(G) out — The Nets exercised Demin's third-year team option for the 2027-28 season, Sharif Phillips-Keaton of USA Today reports Thursday.
Out
T
Tyler Bilodeau
(F) out — Bilodeau (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Indiana.
Out

Indiana Pacers

O
Obi Toppin
(F) out — Toppin (back) is out for Sunday's game against the Nets, Alex Golden of SI.com reports.
Out
T
T.J. McConnell
(G) out — Indiana recalled McConnell (hamstring) from the G League's Noblesville Boom on Saturday.
Out
I
Ivica Zubac
(C) out — Zubac (ankle) will remain on the inactive list for Sunday's game against the Nets.
Out
J
Johnny Furphy
(G) out — Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.
Out
B
Ben Sheppard
(G) out — Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.
Out
T
Tyrese Haliburton
(G) out — Haliburton (hamstring) will miss at least the next two weeks of action, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Brooklyn Nets
Nets
98
-
Indiana Pacers
Pacers
90
Indiana Pacers -3.5
62% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Indiana Pacers (-162) LOSS · Recorded 2026-10-30T22:59:55.386204 UTC

OMEGA win prob 71.1% vs -162 breakeven 61.8% is nominally +EV, but cap of 65 and injury fog leave our honest ML confidence at 55 — below the breakeven+5 rule

Spread: Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-105) LOSS · Recorded 2026-10-31T05:15:29.750976 UTC

OMEGA scoring model/team strength projects Pacers -12 whileDWORD market prices -3.5 vs a 0-5 Nets team that has lost by double digits repeatedly, giving +6.3pp edge even after discounting for Indiana's five absences

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers

+11.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Indiana Pacers 62% Lean
"Pacers -3.5 at -105 vs the 0-5 Nets: Omega projects -12, NegBin projects 75.2% win, and even after haircutting the 8.5-point gap the market is over-paying for Brooklyn's competitiveness"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 51%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Pacers -3.5 (-105/-115), Total 230.5, ML -162/+136
Movement unknown (single-book snapshot)
Multiple Pacers rotation players OUT Nets winless 0-5 (0-2 road) Pacers winless at home 0-2 despite -3.5 favoritism
At -105, breakeven is 51.2%; our 57.5% cover estimate yields ~+$11.7 per $100, but confidence is capped and diluted because the model cannot fully verify the 8.5-point gap vs market
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega line is 8.5 points more bullish than DK (-12.0 vs -3.5), a gap that measurable injuries (5 Pacers out, 3 Nets out) only partially explain. Nets are 0-5 and EWMA form gap is 10.2 points (117.6 vs 107.4). Take Pacers -3.5 at -105 with 62 confidence, not ML -162 (breakeven 61.8% demands >66 which we can't justify under the cap). Over 230.5 at +108 is a lean because both quantitative totals (244.5 OMEGA, 247.9 NegBin) sit well above market.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Indiana Pacers -3.5
+11.7 EV 62% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Indiana Pacers None
-3.5 EV 55%
TOTAL over 230.5
+5.6 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Indiana Pacers -162
  • OMEGA win prob 71.1% vs -162 breakeven 61.8% is nominally +EV, but cap of 65 and injury fog leave our honest ML confidence at 55 — below the breakeven+5 rule
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Indiana Pacers -3.5
  • OMEGA scoring model/team strength projects Pacers -12 whileDWORD market prices -3.5 vs a 0-5 Nets team that has lost by double digits repeatedly, giving +6.3pp edge even after discounting for Indiana's five absences
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 230.5
  • OMEGA total and Negative Binomial 247.9 both sit ~14-17 points above the market's 230.5; over at +108 pays bonus on the higher-scoring side
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pacers -14 is the only far side: two independent models (NegBin -14, Poisson+ELO -14.0) converge on a 13.8-point margin, but the -300 model ML fails the breakeven filter at exactly 75%.
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