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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +15.2% EV ALIGNED
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox None
"Over 8.5 +125: Bayesian posterior 65.2%, +15.2pp edge, +EV confirmed, sharp RLM — strongest signal on the slate."
EV / $100
+12.6
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-10.7%
Size
1u
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 1.5
65%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 8.4% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: over Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$1085707 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 370 trades Kalshi: 32 trades Largest: $100000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
32.0%
ML
212 / -212

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 4.5 (125)
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-112)
Market Consensus Best Line - -134 / 121 ↑ -
Value Line - -152 / 123 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (152) - -
De-Vigged Fair Value 163 / -163 -128 / 128 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

E
Everson Pereira
(RF) 7-day IL — The White Sox activated Pereira (pectoral) from the 10-day injured list Thursday.
7-day il
H
Hagen Smith
(SP) day-to-day — Smith will be shut down for two weeks after being diagnosed with a left shoulder impingement, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyle Teel
(C) 60-day IL — Teel (knee/hamstring) will start a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Tuesday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Noah Schultz
(SP) 15-day IL — Schultz (knee) will begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Tuesday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jordan Hicks
(RP) 15-day IL — Hicks (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Saturday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tim Elko
(1B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Gilbert
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 60-day IL — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Munetaka Murakami
(1B) 10-day IL — White Sox manager Will Venable said Monday that Murakami (hamstring) stayed back in Chicago during the team's road trip and was given a platelet-rich plasma injection, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Leasure
(RP) 60-day IL — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

W
Wenceel Perez
(RF) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Perez on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left orbital fracture, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jack Flaherty
(SP) 15-day IL — Flaherty (ankle) will throw a bullpen session Saturday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (oblique) received a cortisone injection Friday and is expected to start up his rehab program in the next day or two, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) has been scratched from a scheduled start Sunday versus the White Sox due to a left hamstring injury, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 15-day IL — Smith (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Jobe (elbow) is expected to resume facing hitters in live batting practice "in a few weeks," Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Total Over 4.5
Spread -1.5 (152)
Key Injuries
Everson Pereira 7-day il
Hagen Smith Day-To-Day
Wenceel Perez 10-Day-IL
Jack Flaherty 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

+12.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago White Sox 63% Sharp Lean
"Over 8.5 +125: Bayesian posterior 65.2%, +15.2pp edge, +EV confirmed, sharp RLM — strongest signal on the slate."
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 59%
Edge -10.7%
Line Movement
Current ML Home -143 / Away +119 | Spread -1.5 (Home -1.5) | Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement detected; line is stable ahead of first pitch.
Injury impact: Tigers -7.8% (Briceno D2D, Horn/Perez on IL), White Sox -6.9% (Hicks, Teel, Pereira). Roughly equal roster depletion. Cross-market consensus confirms home-side lean on spread and moneyline, but prediction markets diverge sharply (-12.9% vs books). No weather or venue data; likely indoor/neutral conditions.
calibrated posterior fuses a market prior of 58.9% with a model consensus of 32.7% into a posterior of 48.2% for the home moneyline. That is -10.6pp below the implied probability, yielding negative EV on the Tigers ML. The away side (White Sox) carries positive EV on the moneyline and spread.
FULL ANALYSIS
Total over 8.5 is the sharpest play on the board. Bayesian fusion gives it 65.2% win probability vs 50% market — a +15.2pp edge that's confirmed by +EV analysis (+15.2% EV at +125), sharp RLM direction, and an OMEGA independent total that sees a scoring explosion (22.5). The White Sox +1.5 spread and +119 moneyline also carry real edge (posterior 51.8% vs 41.1% market), supported by prediction markets diverging -12.9% from books. The Detroit ML at -143 is a trap — fuse of model and market shows negative EV. Play the over aggressively, and take White Sox side as secondary value.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on ML shows 8.4% divergence toward home, but that is a retail-book artifact. The critical signal: Prediction markets (Kalshi) have home at 55.5% vs. books at 58.9% — a -12.9% divergence pointing to away value. Whale signals (EXTREME tier, $1.08M volume, 76% on home) align with the home side, but Pinnacle fair value plus the Bayesian edge (-10.6pp) and massive model-market total gap all lean away. Contrarian confluence: sharp books and retail books disagree, with prediction markets seeing more away value. Favor away side.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
+12.6 EV 63% 1u
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 1.5
+7.1 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 8.5
+15.2 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Chicago White Sox 119
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows White Sox at 51.8% vs market implied 41.1% — a +10.6pp edge that is the strongest single signal on the board
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Chicago White Sox 1.5
  • Bayesian spread posterior: White Sox cover 53.9% vs market 50.0% — a +3.9pp edge, supported by Monte Carlo projection of a close game (-0.2 margin, std 4.6)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian total posterior shows over 65.2% vs market 50.0% — a +15.2pp edge, the single largest model-market divergence on this slate
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Detroit at -136: model projects 54% win (small +3.9% EV), whales back home side with $240K — but 44% data quality caps confidence at LEAN. Half-unit or pass.
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