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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 0.5
"Red Sox +215 ML (+34 EV: our 42.5% vs 31.7% implied) backed by extreme $124k whales (93%) + net injury edge"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
42%
Edge
-7.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
62%
TOTAL under 24.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$136448 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (92% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 68 trades Kalshi: 9 trades Largest: $9823
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
31.7%
ML
215 / -215

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -104 / -116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 100 / -111 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-420) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-166) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -157 / 157 105 / -105 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) surrendered three earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out three batters over 4.1 innings Friday for Double-A Somerset in the first start of his rehab assignment.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Rodon (elbow/hamstring) will likely begin a rehab assignment following Saturday's live batting practice session, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Volpe (shoulder) is slated to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on Tuesday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

S
Sonny Gray
(SP) out — The Red Sox are expected to place Gray (hamstring) on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Out
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Sandoval isn't expected to require further imaging on his left biceps and will likely resume throwing after a few days of rest, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford said that he expects to have an update on the extent of his right forearm injury Sunday once his doctor finishes reviewing his MRI results, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Casas (knee) was diagnosed with an abdominal strain Tuesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-420)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Sonny Gray Out
Patrick Sandoval 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 58% Lean Calibrated
"Red Sox +215 ML (+34 EV: our 42.5% vs 31.7% implied) backed by extreme $124k whales (93%) + net injury edge"
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -7.5%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread Yankees -0.5 / Red Sox +0.5 (-110), Total 24.0 (-110), ML Yankees -215 / Red Sox +215
Movement N/A
+33.9 EV on Red Sox ML +215 (our 42.5% vs implied 31.7%); negative EV on Yankees ML.
Model: 51.4% win rate | n=580 — ML profitable in strong tier; lean spreads profitable; props losing (cap at 60).
FULL ANALYSIS
Extreme whale action ($124k volume, 93% on BOS) clashes with slight model away lean (MC 50.5% NYY win), but our Bayesian 42.5% home prob crushes +215 implied 31.7% for +34 EV. Injuries net +3.2% home edge; MC under 71.6% on inflated 24 total (proj 20.9). Poor data caps conf, but whale signal + underdog value screams BOS ML.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($124k, 93% confidence from 23 profitable wallets) on Red Sox; institutional-level signal overrides model slight away lean.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 0.5
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+33.9 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 24.0
+4.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Boston Red Sox 215
  • Our 42.5% home win prob (Bayesian fusion + MC 42%) vs model implied 31.7%; exceeds breakeven by 10.8%
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Boston Red Sox 0.5
  • Whale consensus (extreme volume) + Bayesian posterior 42.5% home cover vs model implied 46.2%; net injury edge +3.2% to home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC sim 71.6% under 24.0 vs implied 50%; projected 20.9 total (10.2-10.7)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
BOS ML +215: 42.6% model prob vs 31.7% omega implied (+10.9% edge, $34 EV/100) backed by extreme whales $124k
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