WNBA
New York Liberty
Liberty
Golden State Valkyries
Valkyries
Whale Activity Detected
$45440 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 34 trades
Largest: $4900
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANew York Liberty
Golden State Valkyries
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
5.0
Moneyline
GOL -206
/
NEW 206
Win Probability
67%
-
33%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
New York Liberty @ Golden State Valkyries
+3.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Golden State Valkyries
60%
Lean
"Valkyries -1.5 vs Sabally-less Liberty: injury net of -3.4% favors home side, +3.5 EV at -105 — small play only"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
51%
Edge
+4.0%
Line Movement
Current
Golden State Valkyries -1.5 (Home -105 / Away -115), Total 163.5, ML Home -115 / Away -105
Movement
No significant line movement detected.
Home side injury impact (-10.3%) larger than away (-6.9%), net -3.4% advantage to home
Satou Sabally (Out) — star scoring and creation loss for New York
Iliana Rupert (Out) + Laeticia Amihere (Day-To-Day) — Valkyries frontcourt depth compromised
No rest/travel/schedule data available — neutral
At -105 odds for Golden State Valkyries, our 55.2% win probability yields +5.5% EV per $100 wagered. The book's implied 51.2% leaves a 4.0pp edge, driven by injury impact favoring the Valkyries.
FULL ANALYSIS
This is a data-poor WNBA matchup, but the clearest edge is the injury asymmetry: New York loses star Satou Sabally (out) while Golden State loses Iliana Rupert (out) with Laeticia Amihere day-to-day. Net -3.4% advantage to the home side. The market has Golden State as a slight home favorite (-115 ML, -1.5), which aligns with the injury picture. Whale money ($45K) on Liberty road ML is the main contrarian concern, but without sharp book divergence to back it, the spread side on Golden State is the lean. Stewart and Ionescu props offer usage-based edges from Sabally's absence. Totals are a thin lean to the under given missing scorers.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signals show $45,440 volume on AWAY (New York Liberty) at 62% confidence from 18 profitable wallets. This volume tier is STRONG. However, the injury impact net is -3.4% favoring the home side (Valkyries), and there is no sharp book data to confirm. Whale money on the road dog is a contrarian signal given the home-side injury advantage.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Golden State Valkyries -115
- Home side gets net -3.4% injury advantage while market prices them as a slight underdog — small edge on ML
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
Golden State Valkyries -1.5
- Injury impact favors home side by -3.4% net, Sabally out hurts Liberty scoring
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 163.5
- Both teams missing key scorers (Sabally for NY, Rupert for GS) could depress scoring; no pace data but defensive adjustments likely
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Valkyries -1.5 vs Sabally-less Liberty: injury net of -3.4% favors home side, +3.5 EV at -105 — small play only
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