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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +54.6% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 2.2
"Reds +2.2 (56% conf, +6.3pp posterior edge) + Over 8 (60% conf, +15pp on MC 20.1 total proj)"
EV / $100
+6.3
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
45%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$461786 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (80% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 287 trades Kalshi: 75 trades Largest: $13070
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
39.1%
ML
156 / -156

Player Props Engine

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Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -122 / 102 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -116 / 105 -
Value Line - -122 / -103 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (360) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (182) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-104)
De-Vigged Fair Value 198 / -198 -110 / 110 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — The Reds transferred Lodolo's (finger) rehab assignment to Triple-A Louisville on Saturday.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 15-day IL — Williamson was removed from Wednesday's game against the Rockies with left shoulder fatigue, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) walked one and struck out one over a scoreless inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Suarez's left oblique remains tender, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) struck out five over three perfect innings in his first rehab start with Single-A Bradenton on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (360)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Nick Lodolo 15-Day-IL
Brandon Williamson 15-Day-IL
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Sean Sullivan Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+6.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 56% Lean
"Reds +2.2 (56% conf, +6.3pp posterior edge) + Over 8 (60% conf, +15pp on MC 20.1 total proj)"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Pittsburgh Pirates -2.2 / Cincinnati Reds +2.2 | O/U 8.0 | ML Pittsburgh -132 / Cincinnati +115
Movement No significant line movement detected
+6.3pp edge on Reds spread cover per calibrated vs market
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega independent spread at 0.0 vs market Pirates -2.2 creates 2.2pt early value for Reds cover (56.3% posterior, +6.3pp edge). Massive total discrepancy: MC 20.1 runs (10.3-9.8), Bayesian over 8 at 65.2% (+15pp) despite totals calibration drag. Whale extreme Pirates ($282k vol) and sharp spread home contradict model away lean; injuries net home +1.3%.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 2.2
+6.3 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
+2.1 EV 45% 0u
TOTAL over 8.0
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 45%
Cincinnati Reds 115
  • Away ML posterior 45.2% vs devigged market 43.1% (+2.1pp); Omega ML away -156
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Cincinnati Reds 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Reds cover +2.2 vs 50% market implied (+6.3pp edge); Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% market (+15.2pp); MC projects 20.1 total (10.3-9.8), Omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Reds +2.2 (56% cover +6pp) & Over 8 (60% adj +15pp) -- Omega/MC totals 20+ vs soft 8.0 line
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