La Liga
Osasuna
Osasuna
2
-
3
Final
Levante
Levante
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreOsasuna
Levante
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Osasuna @ Levante
+-7.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Levante
39%
Lean
"Levante +160 ML +0.1 EV (38.5% posterior >37.2% de-vig fair); under 2.5 Lean in low-output spot"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
38%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-11.5%
Line Movement
Current
Levante -0.5 (+140 Levante / -200 Osasuna) | ML Levante +160 / Osasuna -185 | Total 2.5 (-110 o/u)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Marginal +EV on Levante ML +160 (posterior 38.5% > de-vigged fair 37.2%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows no edge (away posterior 61.5% matches vigged market) but de-vig reveals tiny +0.1 EV on Levante +160 ML. Poor data (36% quality, no MC/Poisson/ELO) caps conviction; no injuries/rest/situational flags. Under 2.5 leans value in strugglers' matchup (Levante 8-9-17 home poor).
MONEYLINE PICK
○
39%
Levante 160
- Bayesian posterior home win 38.5% vs de-vigged market 37.2% (+1.3pp edge) at +160
SPREAD PICK
○
39%
Levante -0.5
- Home -0.5 mirrors ML posterior 38.5% but +140 vigged implied 41.7% yields neg EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 2.5
- Poor records (Levante 8-9-17, Osasuna 11-9-14) project <2.5 goals in LaLiga spot
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
No Bayesian edge (0.0pp), Osasuna 60.8% win prob (data-adjusted to 55%) but -7.2 EV on ML due to -190 juice, PASS
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