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MLS
CF Montréal
CF Montréal
Montréal
New England Revolution
Revolution
New England Revolution
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
CF Montréal CF Montréal 0.5
"Omega even matchup (0.0 spread/50% win prob) vs NE -0.5 market = +8.1 EV Montreal ML +260"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
50%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE CF Montréal None
67%
TOTAL over 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

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CF Montréal

New England Revolution

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
NEW -100 / CF -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
CF Montréal @ New England Revolution
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

CF Montréal @ New England Revolution

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
CF Montréal 64% Sharp Lean
"Omega even matchup (0.0 spread/50% win prob) vs NE -0.5 market = +8.1 EV Montreal ML +260"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Open NE -0.5 (-115/-120)
Current NE -0.5 (-115/-120)
Movement No movement
Omega model shows even matchup vs market pricing NE as 52% favorite; +EV on CF Montréal ML at +260
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO projects dead even 6.4-6.4 goals and 0.0 spread vs market NE -0.5, creating value on Montreal +0.5 and +260 ML. Total discrepancy massive at 13.0 model vs 2.5 market signals over 2.5 playable despite totals losing historically. Early season N=0 but ML tier profitable; cap units accordingly.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD CF Montréal 0.5
+3.2 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE CF Montréal None
+8.1 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL over 2.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
CF Montréal 260
  • Omega ML +260 vs market -110; model sees 50% true prob vs 27.8% implied (breakeven 38.5%)
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
CF Montréal 0.5
  • Omega spread at 0.0 vs market -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to road dog in even matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 2.5
  • Omega total 13.0 vs market 2.5 (10.5pt edge); Poisson projects 6.4+6.4=12.8 goals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Montréal ML +260 (12.4 EV): omega 50% prob vs 27.8% implied in even Poisson 6.4-6.4 matchup
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