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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
0 - 1
Final
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 1.5
"DET +1.5 +28 EV (64% model cover vs 44% implied) + extreme $190k whales fading BOS"
EV / $100
+28.4
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
60%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Detroit Tigers

Boston Red Sox

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -131 / 109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -124 / 115 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (340) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (171) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 183 / -183 -120 / 120 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

Z
Zach McKinstry
(3B) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed McKinstry on the 10-day injured list Friday with left hip/abdominal inflammation.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager A.J. Hinch said Thursday that Verlander's recovery from hip inflammation is "going a little slower than I think he anticipated or we anticipated," Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers paused Horn's (elbow) rehab assignment Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (groin) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

S
Sonny Gray
(SP) out — The Red Sox are expected to place Gray (hamstring) on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Out
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Sandoval isn't expected to require further imaging on his left biceps and will likely resume throwing after a few days of rest, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford said that he expects to have an update on the extent of his right forearm injury Sunday once his doctor finishes reviewing his MRI results, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Casas (knee) was diagnosed with an abdominal strain Tuesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
0
-
Boston Red Sox
Sox
1
Detroit Tigers 1.5
65% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox

+28.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 65% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"DET +1.5 +28 EV (64% model cover vs 44% implied) + extreme $190k whales fading BOS"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: BOS -1.5 -126 | ML: BOS -126 / DET +104 | Total: 8.0
Movement No significant movement
+EV on DET ML (fair away 45.4% vs implied 44.3%) and massive on DET +1.5 (fair 64.4% cover vs implied ~44%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — Totals losing across tiers; ML profitable in strong tier
FULL ANALYSIS
+EV analysis reveals 64.4% fair prob DET +1.5 cover vs book ~44% implied, 28% edge. Extreme $190k whale volume (institutional tier) on DET ML aligns perfectly for run line confirmation. Injuries net BOS +3.7% but no pitchers/weather caps; Bayesian ML neutral at 55.8% home.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($190k institutional, 17 wallets, 68% conviction) on DET; aligns with +EV away spread
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 1.5
+28.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Detroit Tigers 104
  • Book ML home implied 55.8% vs +EV fair 54.6%; whale consensus away
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Detroit Tigers 1.5
  • +EV fair value 64.4% DET +1.5 cover vs book-implied ~44% at +110
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.0
  • +EV fair under 50.5% vs neutral book; MLB totals historically unprofitable
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Red Sox ML +197: MC/Bayesian 51-58% win prob vs omega 34% implied (+48 EV), whales oppose
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