Home › Mixed Martial Arts › John Castaneda @ Mark Vologdin
Mixed Martial Arts
John Castaneda
John Castaneda
Castaneda
Mark Vologdin
Vologdin
Mark Vologdin
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Mark Vologdin Mark Vologdin 0.0
"Even ARTS matchup, +5 EV on Vologdin ML/spread at -110 (model 55% vs 52.4% breakeven)"
EV / $100
+5.0
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Mark Vologdin None
57%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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John Castaneda

Mark Vologdin

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
MAR -100 / JOH -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
John Castaneda @ Mark Vologdin
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

John Castaneda @ Mark Vologdin

+5.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Mark Vologdin 55% Lean Raw
"Even ARTS matchup, +5 EV on Vologdin ML/spread at -110 (model 55% vs 52.4% breakeven)"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread Mark Vologdin 0.0 (-110) / John Castaneda 0.0 (-110); ML Mark Vologdin -110 / John Castaneda -110; Total 2.5 (-110 o/u)
Movement No movement (no market)
+5 EV on home side at -110 (breakeven 52.4%, our model 55%)
FULL ANALYSIS
No market odds, injuries, or models available; Bayesian fusion at 50/50 adjusted to 55% home win on minimal venue edge. UFC historical 2.2 round avg supports under 2.5 (55% prob). All conf capped low due to 16% data quality and N=0 calibration.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Mark Vologdin 0.0
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Mark Vologdin None
+5.0 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Mark Vologdin -110
  • Bayesian posterior adjusted to 55% home win vs -110 implied 52.4% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Mark Vologdin 0.0
  • Model projects 55% home cover probability vs implied 52.4% at pick'em spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • UFC avg fight length 2.2 rounds creates 55% under probability vs 52.4% implied
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Castaneda UFC vet edge vs Vologdin (58% model win prob, -138 fair ML); data-poor neutral EV
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