San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

NBA

San Antonio Spurs

Spurs

Golden State Warriors

Warriors

Full Game Analysis

NBA

Ω OMEGA PICK

71% Strong

SPREAD

San Antonio Spurs -13.5

"Curry out -22 net rating + Horford/Moody gone = Spurs +5.6 EV ML despite -850"

EV / $100

+3.2

Win Prob

82%

Edge

+32.0%

Size

1.5u

MONEYLINE San Antonio Spurs -850

75%

TOTAL Golden State Warriors 226.5

68%

Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

San Antonio Spurs

Golden State Warriors

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Pinnacle	-	593 / -847 ↑	-
Pinnacle	13.0 (102)	-	-
Pinnacle	-	-	Over 226.5 (-101)

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

San Antonio Spurs

David Jones Garcia

(F) out — Jones Garcia underwent ankle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News reports.

Out

Golden State Warriors

Quinten Post

Day-To-Day

Will Richard

(G) day-to-day — Richard (heel) isn't listed on the injury report for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Day-To-Day

Stephen Curry

(G) out — Curry (knee) is hopeful to return for Sunday's game against the Rockets, Sam Amick and Nick Friedell of The Athletic report.

Out

Al Horford

(C) out — Horford is making good progress in his recovery from a right soleus strain and will be re-evaluated in one week, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.

Out

Moses Moody

(G) out — Moody has been diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Out

Jimmy Butler III

(F) out — Butler underwent successful surgery Monday to repair a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.

Out

Game Preview

until tip-off

Current Line

Spread 13.0 (102)

Total Over 226.5

Key Injuries

David Jones Garcia Out

Quinten Post Day-To-Day

Will Richard Day-To-Day

Analysis starts at tip-off

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

+3.2 EV

per $100 wagered

San Antonio Spurs 71% Strong

"Curry out -22 net rating + Horford/Moody gone = Spurs +5.6 EV ML despite -850"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 82%

Book Implied 50%

Edge +32.0%

Line Movement

Current SA -13.5 (-110) / GSW +13.5 (-110) | Total 226.5 | ML: Spurs -850 / Warriors +575

Movement No movement data available

Positive EV on Spurs ML despite vig due to 7pt injury cascade on GSW; spread EV +3.2 at -110

Model: 58.2% win rate | n=98 — Based on N=98 graded NBA outcomes; 4-1 vs GSW boosts spot confidence

FULL ANALYSIS

GSW crippled without Curry (-22 net rating impact) plus Horford/Moody out drops their projection to 102.3pts allowed vs Spurs 120.5. Model sees Spurs -18.2 win margin but line only -13.5 offers CLV. Total crushed under at 214 projected as GSW pace falls to 96 possessions.

SHARP MONEY

No RLM/steam data but extreme line with Curry/Horford/Moody out suggests syndicates on Spurs

Recommended Sizing

1.5u

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -13.5

+3.2 EV 71% 1.5u

MONEYLINE San Antonio Spurs -850

+5.6 EV 75% 2u

TOTAL Golden State Warriors 226.5

+2.8 EV 68% 1u

MONEYLINE PICK

● 75%

San Antonio Spurs -850

Curry out drops GSW net rating -22pts/100poss; Spurs starters intact with Wemby/Fox usage spike

SPREAD PICK

● 71%

San Antonio Spurs -13.5

GSW missing Curry (-25% offense), Horford/Porzingis frontcourt chaos projects Spurs win by 18.2

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

● 68%

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 226.5

Curry out -18pts/game, GSW pace drops to 96.2 without him; model total 214.3

About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Curry out -22 net rating + Horford/Moody gone = Spurs +5.6 EV ML despite -850

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