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MLB
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.5% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 2.2
"Athletics +115 ML +10.8pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales; model total 20+ vs 9.5"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+2.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
53%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 12.2% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$921175 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 303 trades Kalshi: 114 trades Largest: $39285
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
31.2%
ML
221 / -221

Player Props Engine

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Athletics

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -109 / -111 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -104 / -106 -
Value Line - -117 / -107 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (182) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 198 / -198 101 / -101 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL

Baltimore Orioles

J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) will play at third base in his rehab assignment with Double-A Chesapeake on Sunday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg will have a follow-up appointment for his right elbow sprain Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Chesapeake on Saturday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cade Povich
(SP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Rogers (illness) has rejoined the Orioles in Miami after doing some throwing at Camden Yards this past weekend, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Denzel Clarke 10-Day-IL
Gunnar Hoglund 60-Day-IL
Jackson Holliday 10-Day-IL
Jordan Westburg 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 56% Lean
"Athletics +115 ML +10.8pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales; model total 20+ vs 9.5"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.9%
Line Movement
Current Orioles -2.2 / Athletics +2.2 | Total 9.5 | ML Orioles -138 / Athletics +115
Movement No significant
net_injury_advantage_away
+10.8pp edge on Athletics ML at +115
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion delivers +10.8pp edge on Athletics ML (52.9% posterior vs 42% market) with extreme $284k whale volume and omega even spread vs -2.2 market line. Injuries ding Orioles -10.6% vs Athletics -4.1% net away boost. MC 10k sims project 9.9-10.3 (away cover 56.3%) and total ~20.2 crushes 9.5 line for +15.2pp over edge.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp ML edge 1.3% away + extreme whale volume $284k on away outweighs spread sharp home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 2.2
+4.8 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+13.7 EV 53% 1.0u
TOTAL over 9.5
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 53%
Athletics 115
  • Bayesian posterior 52.9% away win vs market 42% (+10.8pp edge) confirmed by extreme whale volume
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Athletics 2.2
  • Away cover posterior 56.3% vs market 50% (+6.3pp) with omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp) with MC 20.2 total and omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics +115 ML +10.8pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales; model total 20+ vs 9.5
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