Home › MLB › Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
MLB
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
Twins
4 - 6
Final
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians -1.5
"CLE run line sharp 15.1% edge + $116k extreme whales; over 7.5 +15.2pp Bayesian despite cool 55F"
EV / $100
+15.1
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+7.6%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
58%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
40.7%
ML
146 / -146

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -150 / 126 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -143 / 131 -
Value Line - -152 / 123 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (305) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (151) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 160 / -160 -137 / 137 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

D
David Festa
(SP) 60-day IL — The Twins transferred Festa (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pablo Lopez
(SP) 60-day IL — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cody Laweryson
(RP) 15-day IL — The Twins placed Laweryson (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cory Lewis
(SP) day-to-day — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Garrett Acton
(RP) 15-day IL — The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Julian Merryweather
(RP) day-to-day — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Canterino
(SP) day-to-day — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
W
Walker Jenkins
(CF) day-to-day — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Cole Sands
(RP) 15-day IL — Sands (shoulder) is beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday, Brandon Warne of Access Twins reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mick Abel
(SP) 15-day IL — Abel (elbow) was given a cortisone injection after feeling soreness in his right triceps following a simulated game Saturday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
Day-To-Day
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Armstrong on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right groin strain, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
15-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Minnesota Twins
Twins
4
-
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
6
Cleveland Guardians -1.5
64% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

+15.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 64% Sharp Lean
"CLE run line sharp 15.1% edge + $116k extreme whales; over 7.5 +15.2pp Bayesian despite cool 55F"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.6%
Line Movement
Current Run Line: CLE -1.5 -143 / MIN +1.5 +118; ML: CLE -143 / MIN +119; Total: 7.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Cool temps 55F (+8% under bias) Home pitcher Messick 2.40 ERA edge (-15% lambda adj) Away more injured (-8.7% impact)
Slight negative EV on home ML vs vigged odds; away +1.3pp vs devigged fair but vigged negative. Focus on spread/total.
FULL ANALYSIS
CLE's Messick (2.40 ERA, -15% lambda) dominates Prielipp (3.86); Bayesian home 57.6% + extreme $116k whales (institutional) and 15.1% sharp spread edge vs Pinnacle. Total market stuck at 7.5 despite MC 18.2 proj and 65.2% over posterior, though 55F tempers. Omega even spread flags market overjuice on CLE -1.5.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 15.1% sharp edge on CLE spread + moderate ML away but overall home; extreme whale volume $116k institutional tier (77% confidence, 32 wallets).
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians -1.5
+15.1 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+14.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Cleveland Guardians -143
  • Bayesian posterior 57.6% home (near breakeven 58.8%) backed by extreme whale volume $116k
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Cleveland Guardians -1.5
  • Strong sharp money on home spread (15.1% divergence) +56.1% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (38.1% fair home cover)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over 7.5 (+15.2pp edge); MC projected 18.2 total (9.4-8.8)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +202 ML crush value (48.8% posterior >33% implied, +47 EV) w/ whales steam + Kalshi fade omega juice; MC under 22.5 71%
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