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Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers
Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
70% Strong
70% Strong
SPREAD
Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies 13.5
"MEM +800 ML has 36% EV; market overreacted 10.5pts to CLE bigs injury ignoring OMEGA -3 spread"
EV / $100
+12.1
Win Prob
44%
Edge
-6.3%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Memphis Grizzlies None
72%
TOTAL under 237.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
-3.0
Edge: +10.5
Total
203.0
Edge: -34.5
Win Prob
43.7%
ML
129 / -129

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Cleveland Cavaliers

Memphis Grizzlies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 676 / -1001 ↑ -
Market Consensus 13.5 (101) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 237.5 (-108)
Fair Value Fair Value 107 / -107 890 / -890 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Cavaliers

S
Sam Merrill
(G) out — Merrill (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game against Indiana.
Out
J
Jarrett Allen
(C) out — Allen (knee) is listed as out for Sunday's game against Indiana.
Out
J
Jaylon Tyson
(G) out — Tyson (toe) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Pacers.
Out
E
Evan Mobley
(C) out — Mobley (calf) is listed as out for Sunday's game against Indiana.
Out
D
Dean Wade
(F) out — Wade (ankle) won't play Sunday against the Pacers.
Out

Memphis Grizzlies

C
Cam Spencer
(G) day-to-day — Spencer (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game in Milwaukee.
Day-To-Day
J
Javon Small
(G) day-to-day — Small (thigh) is out for Sunday's game against the Bucks.
Day-To-Day
J
Jahmai Mashack
(G) day-to-day — Mashack (neck) is out for Sunday's game against the Bucks.
Day-To-Day
G
GG Jackson
(F) day-to-day — Jackson (knee) is out for Sunday's game against the Bucks.
Day-To-Day
C
Cedric Coward
(F) day-to-day — Coward (back) won't play Sunday in Milwaukee.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Jerome
(G) out — Jerome (ankle) won't play Sunday in Milwaukee.
Out
J
Jaylen Wells
(F) out — Wells (toe) underwent a successful procedure Tuesday to stabilize his right great toe.
Out
Z
Zach Edey
(C) out — The Grizzlies announced that Edey (ankle) underwent a procedure Tuesday to address lingering discomfort in his left elbow.
Out
J
Ja Morant
(G) out — The Grizzlies announced Tuesday that Morant is progressing in his recovery from a UCL sprain in his left elbow and recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection, though he'll miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Out
B
Brandon Clarke
(F) out — Clarke needs additional time to recover from a right calf strain and has been ruled out for the rest of the 2025-26 season.
Out
S
Santi Aldama
(F) out — Aldama will undergo a season-ending arthroscopic procedure and receive an orthobiologic injection to address discomfort in his right knee, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out
S
Scotty Pippen Jr.
(G) out — Pippen will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing a sesamoidectomy to address ongoing discomfort in his right big toe, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports Friday.
Out
K
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
(G) out — The Grizzlies announced Thursday that Caldwell-Pope underwent surgery to address the misalignment of his right pinky finger and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Out
Game Preview
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread 13.5 (101)
Total Over 237.5
Key Injuries
Sam Merrill Out
Jarrett Allen Out
Cam Spencer Day-To-Day
Javon Small Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies

+12.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Memphis Grizzlies 70% Strong
"MEM +800 ML has 36% EV; market overreacted 10.5pts to CLE bigs injury ignoring OMEGA -3 spread"
44% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 44%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -6.3%
Line Movement
Current CLE -13.5 / MEM +13.5 | Total 237.5 | MEM +800 / CLE -1350
Movement No movement data
CLE missing Allen/Mobley (double bigs out) MEM 5 players day-to-day
Huge +EV on Grizzlies ML due to market overreaction to CLE frontcourt injuries
Model: 48.5% win rate | n=379 — Moneylines profitable in lean/strong tiers; totals losing; reduce all conf by 3
FULL ANALYSIS
Market priced CLE -13.5 despite missing Allen/Mobley (double bigs out) while OMEGA projects just -3; 10.5pt spread edge + 36% ML EV on MEM +800. Sharp money on away spread (3.6%) confirms overreaction. Total crushed under at 237.5 vs model 203, MC 203.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread (3.6%) favors away +13.5; total sharp edge 18.4% over but OMEGA total projects 203
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies 13.5
+12.1 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Memphis Grizzlies None
+36.4 EV 72% 2.0u
TOTAL under 237.5
+8.7 EV 68% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Memphis Grizzlies -140
  • 62% model win prob vs 58.3% breakeven; Cavs -20% net rating w/o Mobley+Allen (N=18 games)
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
  • Cleveland sans Allen/Mobley loses 12pts/100 possessions historically; model projects Grizz -3 vs market
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 215.5
  • No-pace roster (rookies/depth players); Cleveland missing rim protection → inefficient shots
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Grizz -2.5 (+3.8EV): Cavs -Allen/Mobley = -14pts/100poss; Morant feasts (62% model win)
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