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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.6% EV ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros -1.5
"Astros -1.5 backed by sharp money and whales; Guardians without Ramirez create value on Houston spread and under."
EV / $100
+14.6
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+2.4%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
60%
TOTAL under 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1182306 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 506 trades Kalshi: 58 trades Largest: $42918
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
29.9%
ML
235 / -235

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -131 / 109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -125 / 113 -
Value Line - -129 / 102 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (305) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (160) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-119)
De-Vigged Fair Value 172 / -172 -119 / 119 O/U -111 / 111
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

C
Chase DeLauter
(RF) 10-day IL — The Guardians placed DeLauter (rib) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tanner Burns
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Jose Ramirez
(3B) 10-day IL — Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Martinez
(LF) 10-day IL — Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
Day-To-Day

Houston Astros

C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — Javier (shoulder) will make another appearance Sunday for Triple-A Sugar Land in what should be his final rehab start, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) 15-day IL — McCullers (shoulder) threw a 25-pitch live batting practice session Friday at Daikin Park, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — Blanco (elbow) struck out five over three scoreless frames in his first rehab start with the Astros' Florida Complex League affiliate Friday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Braden Shewmake
(SS) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Shewmake (adductor) has taken part in baseball activity and is working his way through a running progression at the team's facility in Florida, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
L
LaMonte Wade Jr.
(1B) 10-day IL — Wade left Monday's game against the Angels with right hamstring soreness, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was removed from Sunday's game against the Athletics due to left hamstring discomfort.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Sousa (elbow) has begun a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 60-day IL — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (305)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Chase DeLauter 10-Day-IL
Tanner Burns Day-To-Day
Cristian Javier 60-Day-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros

+14.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 65% Sharp Lean
"Astros -1.5 backed by sharp money and whales; Guardians without Ramirez create value on Houston spread and under."
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 58%
Edge +2.4%
Line Movement
Current Home -136 / Away 113; Spread -1.5; Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Guardians missing Jose Ramirez (10-Day-IL) – 30%+ of offensive production Astros also missing Nick Allen, LaMonte Wade Jr. but less impactful No probable pitcher data – increases uncertainty
Astros moneyline offers +4.1% EV based on our adjusted probability accounting for Guardians' injuries.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money and whale activity heavily favor Astros -1.5, with 13.8% sharp divergence and $1.17M whale volume. Guardians missing Jose Ramirez (10-Day-IL) significantly weakens their lineup. Bayesian model disagrees but likely underweights injury impact. Total under 8.5 also attractive given key bats out on both sides. No pitcher data increases uncertainty, so confidence is capped at Lean/Sharp Lean.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 13.8% favoring Astros, strong signal. Whale volume $1.17M (extreme) also on home side. Prediction markets and sharp books align on home ML (54.5% vs 57.6% market).
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros -1.5
+14.6 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
+4.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+5.0 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Houston Astros -136
  • Guardians missing Jose Ramirez (10-Day-IL) removes their best hitter; Astros have superior roster depth even with their own injuries
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Houston Astros -1.5
  • Sharp money divergence of 13.8% and extreme whale volume ($1.17M) both favor Astros -1.5; Guardians missing Jose Ramirez weakens lineup significantly
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 8.5
  • Both teams missing key bats (Ramirez, DeLauter, Martinez for Guardians; Allen, Wade for Astros) reduces run-scoring potential; Bayesian over projection (65.2%) seems inflated
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cleveland +2.2 at -110: Bayesian posterior 56.3% vs market 50% — +6.3pp edge. OMEGA spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 means we are 2.2 points early on this value.
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