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Mixed Martial Arts
Thiago Moisés
Thiago Moisés
Moisés
Gauge Young
Young
Gauge Young
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Gauge Young Gauge Young -0.5
"Gauge Young home ML (-125 model): $160k extreme whale 100% home in data vacuum (+3.4% edge, +6.2 EV)"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+9.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Gauge Young None
59%
TOTAL over 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$173185 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 17 trades Kalshi: 444 trades Largest: $4050

Player Props Engine

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Thiago Moisés

Gauge Young

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
GAU -100 / THI -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

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Thiago Moisés @ Gauge Young
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Thiago Moisés @ Gauge Young

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Gauge Young 56% Lean Raw
"Gauge Young home ML (-125 model): $160k extreme whale 100% home in data vacuum (+3.4% edge, +6.2 EV)"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Gauge Young ML -125 / Thiago Moisés +105; Spread Gauge Young -0.5; Total 2.5
Movement N/A
Modest +EV on home ML at -125; breakeven 55.6%, our prob exceeds by 3.4% (marginal after 5% rule adjustment for poor data)
FULL ANALYSIS
No odds, stats, or models available defaults Bayesian to 50/50, but extreme $160k whale volume (institutional, 100% home) provides sole Tier 2 signal tilting OMEGA to 59% Gauge Young win prob. MMA home micro-edge + whale creates +6.2 EV at model -125 ML. Poor data caps at Lean tier; avoid higher units.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $160k (institutional tier, 100% home consensus from profitable wallet)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Gauge Young -0.5
+4.1 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Gauge Young None
+6.2 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL over 2.5
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Gauge Young -125
  • Only signal is extreme whale action ($160k volume, 100% home conviction) in 50/50 Bayesian base
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Gauge Young -0.5
  • Extreme whale signal ($160k institutional volume 100% home) tilts model to home cover in data void
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 2.5
  • Default to decision (over 2.5 rounds) in unrated prelim-style MMA matchup with no finish signals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Whales drop $160k extreme vol on Gauge Young ML (100% conf); model +8.2 EV vs -122 fair line
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