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Arizona Diamondbacks
Injury Report
Milwaukee Brewers
Kyle Harrison
(RP)
day-to-day — Harrison was removed during the third inning of Wednesday's Cactus League game against the Angels due to a blister on his left index finger, Sophia Minnaert of FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin reports.
Day-To-Day
Brandon Woodruff
(SP)
day-to-day — Woodruff (lat) said Friday that his status for Opening Day remains "up in the air," Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Craig Yoho
(RP)
out — The Brewers announced Wednesday that Yoho has been diagnosed with a low-grade right soleus strain and is projected to return to action in mid-April, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
Rob Zastryzny
(RP)
out — The Brewers activated Zastryzny (ribs) from the 15-day injured list Friday.
Out
Quinn Priester
(SP)
out — Priester (wrist) said Friday that he's hoping to be ready to pitch in games by "late April, May," Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
Akil Baddoo
(LF)
out — Manager Pat Murphy revealed Thursday that Baddoo's left quadriceps injury is worse than initially believed and he will miss at least three to four weeks, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
Thomas Pannone
(RP)
day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP)
day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Eduardo Garcia
(OF)
out
Out
Steward Berroa
(RF)
day-to-day — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Saturday that Berroa is dealing with a sore shoulder, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Gerson Garabito
(RP)
out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly
(SP)
out — Kelly (back) allowed two runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in Wednesday's spring start against the Cubs.
Out
Corbin Burnes
(SP)
60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF)
out — Gurriel (knee) could return to game action by mid-April, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
Out
Adrian Del Castillo
(C)
out — Del Castillo (calf) has begun hitting in cages and catching bullpen sessions, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Out
Cristian Mena
(RP)
out — Mena (shoulder) has continued his throwing program, but he has yet to throw off a mound, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Out
Tyler Locklear
(1B)
out — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Sunday that Locklear (shoulder/elbow) is trending toward a return around mid-May to early June, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Out
A.J. Puk
(RP)
60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Puk (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
Justin Martinez
(RP)
60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) hopes to make his season debut by late August, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP)
60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
Derek Law
(RP)
out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
Kyle Amendt
(RP)
out — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
Tommy Henry
(RP)
out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Blake Walston
(SP)
out — The Diamondbacks placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Out
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers
67%
TOSS-UP
"Brewers ML +4.2 EV: Dbacks 5 outs (Kelly/Gurriel) vs Milwaukee 5 DTDs only"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines set
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - pre-market
+4.2 EV on Brewers ML at estimated -120 fair line
FULL ANALYSIS
Dbacks hammered by outs: Kelly/Gurriel/Del Castillo/Mena/Locklear gone, Brewers just DTDs (Woodruff playable). Nelson's 16K edge vs thin Brewers bats but Milwaukee healthier overall. Model gives 58% Brewers win prob vs fair -120 line. Early season, fade injury-riddled home side.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
54%
Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (DDN_model fair)
- Home field + hitter's park for Dbacks prospects (Lawlar, Nelson hot starts)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Dbacks home opener in bomb pit vs Brewers injury parade — model +3.2 EV at -125 fair, 0.5u Lawlar hits O0.5
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