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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
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3 - 4
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New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 1.56
"ARI ML +129: Omega even matchup (0.0 spread) vs -156 market juice, MC 46.7% win prob (+2.1 EV)"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
60%
TOTAL over 7.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +17.0
Win Prob
33.6%
ML
198 / -198

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Mets

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo announced Sunday that Kelly (back) will make one more rehab start before joining the big-league rotation, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has thrown multiple bullpen sessions since late March, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel (knee) continues to get at-bats and lightly run out of the batter's box in simulated games at Arizona's training camp, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out

New York Mets

J
Juan Soto
(RF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Soto (calf) on the 10-day injured list Monday.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks
3
-
New York Mets
Mets
4
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.56
58% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 58% Lean
"ARI ML +129: Omega even matchup (0.0 spread) vs -156 market juice, MC 46.7% win prob (+2.1 EV)"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.3%
Line Movement
Current NYM -156 / ARI +129 | Total 7.0
Movement No movement data
No game-side EV; ARI ML offers best value but still negative vs vig. Model projects even matchup.
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — MLB 172-150 (53.4% N=322); reduce 5 pts for degraded signals; favor ML (profitable in lean/strong)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread dead even at 0.0 vs market NYM -1.56 while MC sims 46.7% ARI cover rate; massive 17pt total gap (24.0 model vs 7.0 market) screams inflated underpricing. ARI 0-3 road but Mets missing Soto (.355 BA) and multiple arms; lean ARI ML +129 where breakeven 43.7% < our 46.7%. Data quality caps conviction but model edge clear.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 1.56
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.0
+0.8 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Arizona Diamondbacks -198
  • MC away win prob 46.4% but -198 requires 66.4% breakeven, no value
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
New York Mets 0.0
  • MC sims show 45.9% Mets cover 0.0 vs 46.4% Dbacks in even matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC shows 47.5% under 24.0 vs 44.8% over in high-variance sims
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even matchup per MC (46% Dbacks win vs -198 juice = no EV); Mets +0.0 lean only (45.9% cover)
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