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Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 1.5
"Athletics ML +113: +10.7pp Bayesian edge + extreme $338k whales on away vs juiced -136 Orioles (poor SP/injuries)"
EV / $100
+12.5
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+3.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
53%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
31.2%
ML
221 / -221

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Athletics

Baltimore Orioles

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -130 / 108 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -125 / 116 -
Value Line - -165 / 118 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (285) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (155) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 165 / -165 -121 / 121 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL

Baltimore Orioles

B
Blaze Alexander
(3B) day-to-day — Alexander is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Marlins.
Day-To-Day
C
Cade Povich
(SP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — The Orioles sent Holliday (hand) to Double-A Chesapeake on Thursday to resume a rehab assignment.
10-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Rogers (illness) has rejoined the Orioles in Miami after doing some throwing at Camden Yards this past weekend, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — The Orioles announced Monday that Kjerstad (hamstring) will be re-evaluated soon to determine his readiness for a rehab assignment, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Athletics
Athletics
4
-
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
3
Athletics 1.5
62% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

+12.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 62% Lean
"Athletics ML +113: +10.7pp Bayesian edge + extreme $338k whales on away vs juiced -136 Orioles (poor SP/injuries)"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.1%
Line Movement
Current BAL -1.5 -136 / Athletics +1.5 +114 | ML BAL -136 / Athletics +113 | Total 9.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
home_injury_impact_-10.6pct away_injury_impact_-4.1pct high_era_pitchers_both_sides
+10.7pp edge on Athletics ML vs market-implied 42.4%; +15.2pp on over
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Athletics 53.1% ML win prob vs market 42.4% (+10.7pp, EV +13.1/$100) anchored by omega even spread + MC 48.7% away win, confirmed extreme $338k whales (53 wallets) despite PM/home sharp ML lean. Over 9.5 has +15.2pp posterior (65.2%) with omega 22.5 total, Bradish/Lopez ERAs 5.03/6.60 + home injuries -10.6%. Spread away +EV (Pinnacle 61.6% cover) in high-var 11-11 proj scoring.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate ML sharp edge 1.1% away + strong spread +EV (away fair cover 61.6% vs retail)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 1.5
+12.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+13.1 EV 53% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+20.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 53%
Athletics 113
  • Bayesian posterior 53.1% vs market 42.4% (+10.7pp edge), extreme whale volume $338k on away
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Athletics 1.5
  • +EV analysis: Pinnacle fair 61.6% Athletics +1.5 cover vs retail implied ~46%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp), omega total 22.5 + pitchers ERAs 5.03/6.60
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics ML +8.7pp Bayesian edge vs Kalshi 43% + $244k extreme whales; MC 74% under 22.5
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