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Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +0.7% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 1.5
"MC 21.9 runs vs 9.0 total (+12.9 edge) + omega even spread = over/WSH RL value despite ATL sharp lean"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+9.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
60%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 3.3% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$880862 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 414 trades Kalshi: 163 trades Largest: $55146
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
29.2%
ML
242 / -242

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Washington Nationals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 110 / -132 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 127 / -141 -
Value Line - 112 / -137 -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-129) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value -122 / 122 134 / -134 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

D
Dylan Dodd
(RP) out — Atlanta recalled Dodd from Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday.
Out
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) struck out eight and permitted one hit and one walk over 4.1 scoreless innings in his rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Gwinnett.
15-Day-IL
R
Raisel Iglesias
(RP) 15-day IL — An MRI on Iglesias's right shoulder Tuesday confirmed that he is not dealing with structural damage, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) is slated to move his rehab assignment from High-A Rome to Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Manager Walt Weiss said Saturday that Kim (finger) has resumed taking batting practice, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Washington Nationals

J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — Gray (elbow) remains shut down from throwing and will undergo additional testing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cole Henry
(RP) 15-day IL — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Ken Waldichuk
(RP) 60-day IL — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-129)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Dylan Dodd Out
Spencer Strider 15-Day-IL
Josiah Gray 60-Day-IL
Cole Henry 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 65% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"MC 21.9 runs vs 9.0 total (+12.9 edge) + omega even spread = over/WSH RL value despite ATL sharp lean"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: WSH +113 / ATL -136 | Total: 9.0 | Spread: ATL -1.5 -136 (assumed runline)
Movement No significant movement
+1.1 EV on ATL ML at -136; exceeds breakeven 57.6% but marginal <5% gap, confirm with sharp action
FULL ANALYSIS
Models project 21.9 runs (MC) vs market 9.0 total amid pitcher injuries both sides; omega spread even at 0.0 flags value on WSH +1.5 despite ATL ML juice. Sharp/Pinnacle +2.9% on ATL but extreme whales ($880k) on WSH create divergence—default sharp, but cap at lean. Low agreement + degraded data warrants 60-65 conf range.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 2.9% on away ML + +0.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (57.3%)
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 1.5
+4.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+1.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+3.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Atlanta Braves -136
  • Bayesian posterior 58.4% away win vs market 57.6% breakeven + sharp 2.9% edge
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Washington Nationals 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market ATL -1.5 shows value on WSH +1.5; MC margin -0.1 with home cover ~70%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • MC projected 21.9 runs vs market 9.0; Omega total 24.0, multiple pitchers out boost scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega even spread 0.0 vs Braves -1.36 implied (+3.8 EV Nats +1.5), model total 24 crushes 9.0 (+28 EV over) on injury pitching
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