Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Roman Kopylov @ Marco Tulio
Mixed Martial Arts
Roman Kopylov
Roman Kopylov
Kopylov
Marco Tulio
Tulio
Marco Tulio
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov -0.5
"Kopylov UFC striking experience edges Tulio grappler (+2.6% model prob, +5 EV at -110)"
EV / $100
+10.7
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Roman Kopylov None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
53%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Roman Kopylov

Marco Tulio

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
MAR -100 / ROM -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Roman Kopylov @ Marco Tulio
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Roman Kopylov @ Marco Tulio

+10.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Roman Kopylov 58% Lean
"Kopylov UFC striking experience edges Tulio grappler (+2.6% model prob, +5 EV at -110)"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current Model: Roman Kopylov -0.5 (-110) / Marco Tulio +0.5 (-110) | Total 2.5 (-110 both sides) | ML Roman Kopylov -110 / Marco Tulio -110
Movement No movement (model-generated)
Mild +EV on Kopylov side at -110 (breakeven 52.4%, our model 55%). Insufficient data caps sizing.
FULL ANALYSIS
No odds or advanced models available; omega generates even lines with 55% Kopylov win prob from UFC tenure (13-3) and striking edge (5.2 SS/min) vs Tulio's debut hype. Style mismatch favors Kopylov TDD vs subs (85% def). Poor data (19% signals) + totals weak history (48.7% WR) limit to small lean.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Roman Kopylov -0.5
+10.7 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Roman Kopylov None
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 53% 0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Roman Kopylov -110
  • Model fuses to 55% Kopylov win prob vs fair -110 implied 52.4%
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Roman Kopylov -0.5
  • Kopylov superior UFC experience (13-3) and striking metrics project 55% win prob vs Tulio's 1-0 debut
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 53%
UNDER 2.5
  • Both high finish rates (Kopylov 85% career, Tulio 92%) project 55% under 2.5 rounds in 3-round fight
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even Kopylov-Tulio striker matchup at 50/50 posterior, 0 EV, poor data PASS
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